Investor's Corner
Tesla registers over 10,000 new Model 3 VINs as Dual Motor production ramp continues
Tesla has registered two large batches totaling more than 10,000 new Model 3 VINs over the weekend, in what appears to be a sign of a renewed production push for the electric sedan. Both batches, the first being 2,625 registrations and the other being 7,903, are estimated to be comprised of dual motor AWD vehicles.
#Tesla registered 7,903 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 89107. https://t.co/OZqpp8nPjs
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) August 5, 2018
#Tesla registered 2,625 new #Model3 VINs. ~88% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 81204. https://t.co/SVarfCqPe5
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) August 4, 2018
With the addition of this weekend’s 10,528 new Model 3 filings, Tesla has now registered a total of 89,107 vehicles since the electric car started production last year. These latest filings are among Tesla’s most significant yet, considering that the company’s VIN registrations only went past the 10,000-mark near the end of January, roughly six months into the electric car’s production.
During Tesla’s Q2 2018 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk stated that Tesla was able to maintain the Model 3’s 5,000/week production rate across multiple weeks in July. Musk’s statement about the Model 3’s production falls in line with the trend displayed by VIN registrations during the first two weeks of the month. Immediately after the beginning of Q3 2018, Tesla went on a VIN-filing spree, registering 19,000 new Model 3 VINs in the first half of July.
During the latter half of last month, however, Tesla’s VIN filings plateaued, with the company registering only a few vehicles at a time until this weekend. Quite interestingly, these last two big batches of VIN filings also corresponded to dual motor variants of the Model 3. Twitter watchdog group @Model3VINs initially estimated the first batch of 2,625 Model 3 VINs to include Long Range RWD variants of the electric car, but in the following update, the group noted that all the filings appeared to be dual motor.
Tesla has only started rolling out the dual motor AWD and Performance variants of the Model 3 recently. Nevertheless, Tesla worldwide head of sales Robin Ren stated during the second quarter earnings call that the dual motor AWD and Performance Model 3’s combined orders are now more than the orders for the vehicle’s Long Range RWD variant. The Tesla executive further noted that interest in the Model 3 remains high, with the company having 60,000 test drive requests for the electric sedan in the United States alone.
If Robin Ren’s statements and the recent Model 3 VIN filings are any indications, it appears that Tesla’s push to upsell the higher-end variants of the electric car to consumers is starting to pay off. Tesla, after all, stopped anti-selling the vehicle after the end of Q2 2018, offering test drives to customers and promoting the Model 3 Performance. In a Twitter post, Elon Musk also encouraged reservation holders to test drive the Model 3 Performance even if they do not have orders for the top-tier vehicle.
With its 5,000/week target for the Model 3’s production being met, Tesla is now aiming to sustain and increase its manufacturing capability for the electric car. During his opening remarks in the Q2 2018 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk stated that Tesla is aiming to produce 7,000 vehicles per week throughout Q3 2018. Musk also noted that Tesla is expecting its ramp to 10,000 Model 3 per week to involve only a “tiny fraction” of the CapEx used when it ramped the vehicle to 5,000 units per week.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.
Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.
It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.
Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.
He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.
However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.
Musk replied, basically confirming it:
As usual, Eric is accurate
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 10, 2025
Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.
AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.
It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.
The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.
But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.
On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.
🚨 Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating and $500 PT on Tesla $TSLA stock
Analyst Alexander Potter said FSD is near full autonomy and latest versions showed the largest improvement in disengagements, from 440 miles to 9,200 miles between critical interventions pic.twitter.com/u4WCLfZcA9
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) December 9, 2025
The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.
Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.
Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.
Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.
Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.
Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it
With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.
Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets price target boost, but it’s not all sunshine and rainbows
Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.
He wrote:
“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”
Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.
Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.
He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”
Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.
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Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”
Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.