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SpaceX teases progress towards Starship’s orbital launch debut

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A recorded address from SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell to a graduating class of college seniors unexpectedly teased progress building the 35 Raptor engines that will power Starship’s imminent orbital launch attempt.

In a seemingly calculated move, the famous SpaceX executive’s prerecorded address included a glimpse of a screen on the factory floor tasked with tracking progress towards Starship’s first “orbital launch.” Featuring a basic graphic clearly depicting the aft ends of a Starship upper stage and Super Heavy booster, the display ultimate indicated that SpaceX has already “shipped” at least 11 of the almost three-dozen Raptor engines needed for the combined rocket’s first launch attempt.

Just three months ago, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk confirmed well-sourced reports from NASASpaceflight.com that the company was aiming to attempt Starship’s first orbital launch no later than July 2021. Two months later, regulatory documents revealed more concrete details for said launch attempt, indicating that Starship and Super Heavy’s first combined launch would see the ship spend some 80 minutes in space before reentering and splashing down off the coast of Hawai’i.

Not long after, Musk revealed that SpaceX boosted Super Heavy’s engine count from 28 to 29 and implied that even the first few orbital launch attempts would use a full complement of 29 engines. Combined with Starship’s three sea level and three vacuum-optimized Raptors and indications that the first one or more orbital-class ships and boosters will be expended without any recovery attempt, it became clear that SpaceX would need to radically expand Raptor production to meet such unprecedented demand for engines.

All Starships will require six Raptor engines. (SpaceX)
According to Musk, each Super Heavy booster will need 29 Raptors – eventually growing to 32 after a future upgrade. (SpaceX)

All told, SpaceX will need to manufacture, qualify, and deliver at least 35 Raptor engines to fully outfit every Starship and Super Heavy pair. If initial test flights are meant to expend both stages, that already exceptional challenge expands to require 35 engines for every launch attempt. Eventually, SpaceX’s goal is to manufacture hundreds of Raptor engines per year to outfit dozens of Starships and Super Heavy boosters, but Raptor only began full-scale integrated ground testing a little over two years ago.

Despite the challenges, SpaceX appears to be more than up to them and the display Shotwell walked past within the last month or two suggests that the company’s main Hawthorne, California factory has already “shipped” almost a third of the engines required for Starship’s inaugural orbital test flight. In this case, “shipped” likely means that those 11 engines have left the factory and headed to McGregor, Texas to be cleared for flight.

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Several may already have made it through qualification testing and been delivered to Boca Chica – in fact, two new engines arrived at SpaceX’s Starship factory just last weekend. However, the rapid-fire arrival of dozens of Raptors will be unlike anything yet seen in Boca Chica. Altogether, SpaceX has sent a total of 30-35 Raptors to Boca Chica in the last two years. In the runup to Starship’s first orbital launch attempt, possibly as early Q3 2021, SpaceX will need to deliver ~35 Raptors in two months – an unprecedented influx of engines that will be easily tracked by the public.

Perhaps the most intriguing part of SpaceX’s calculated Starship launch teaser is the presence of a 25-day countdown, indicating that something is supposed to happen within the next two to four weeks. Given the display’s focus on “engines shipped,” the timer is likely counting down to an internal shipment target for the mission’s 35th and final engine. If SpaceX hits that target and Shotwell’s class address was recorded within the last week or so, all 35 orbital test flight Raptors could feasibly leave the factory floor by the end of the first full week of July, leaving a few weeks to finish qualification testing and ship each engine to Boca Chica before the end of the month.

If SpaceX can clear all 35 Raptors for flight by the end of July, it’s plausible that clean qualification testing could leave the first orbital-class Starship and Super Heavy booster ready for their launch debut in August or September – and almost certainly before the end of the year.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.

The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.

They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.

Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.

Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.

Ives said in a note on October 2:

“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”

Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.

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Tesla preps for a harsh potential reality if Musk comp vote doesn’t go to plan

A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.

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tesla cybertruck elon musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveils futuristic Cybertruck in Los Angeles, Nov. 21, 2019 (Photo: Teslarati)

Tesla could be forced to look for a new CEO in the coming months, as a crucial November 6 Shareholder Meeting vote will determine whether Elon Musk will stick around.

A major vote is coming up at the 2025 Tesla Shareholder Meeting, as investors will determine whether Musk should be given a new compensation plan that would award him up to $1 trillion and more than one-fourth of the total voting power within the company.

Tesla board chair reiterates widely unmentioned point of Musk comp plan

A successful vote for Tesla would see the compensation package get approved. But there is always the possibility of a rejection, which would likely see Musk leave the company.

“My fundamental concern with regard to how much voting control I have at Tesla is if I go ahead and build this enormous robot army, can I just be ousted at some point in the future? That’s my biggest concern,” Musk said at last week’s Earnings Call. “That’s what it comes down to in a nutshell. I don’t feel comfortable wielding that robot army if I don’t have at least a strong influence.”

Tesla Board of Directors Head Robyn Denholm has been on somewhat of a PR tour over the past few days, answering questions about the compensation plan, which is among the biggest issues currently for the company.

Denholm told Bloomberg yesterday that Tesla investors need to be prepared for Musk to abandon ship if the package is not approved, which brings on a new question: Who would take over the CEO role?

That is a question Denholm also answered yesterday, bringing forth the conclusion that Tesla would not look for an outside hire if Musk were to leave the company. Instead, it would promote someone internally.

The way it was reported by Bloomberg and Reuters seems to make it seem as if Tesla is preparing for the worst, as it states the company “is looking at internal CEO candidates,” not preparing to do so.

Of the executives at Tesla who immediately come to mind as ideal candidates for a potential takeover should Musk leave, Tesla China President Tom Zhu and Head of AI Ashok Elluswamy both come to mind. Zhu has monumental executive experience already, as he was appointed to the role of Senior VP of Automotive back in December 2022.

He then returned to China in 2024.

It seems Tesla wants to align its future, with or without Musk, on the same path that it is currently on, and internal candidates might have a better idea of what that looks like and truly means.

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Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) is nearing approval in a new country

As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.

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Credit: @BLKMDL3/X

It appears that Tesla FSD (Supervised) is heading to a new country soon, at least based on comments from Israel’s Transport and Road Safety Minister Miri Regev.

As per the official, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system could be enabled in Israel in the near future.

Israeli drivers are pushing for FSD rollout

While Tesla’s FSD is already operational in markets like the U.S., Canada, and Australia, Israeli owners have long been unable to use the feature due to regulatory barriers. Despite its premium price tag, however, numerous Tesla owners in Israel have noted that the technology’s safety benefits, at least when approved for real-world use in the country, justify its cost. 

It was then no surprise that nearly 1,000 Tesla owners in Israel have already petitioned the government to greenlight FSD’s domestic release in Israel. In a post on X, Regev seemed to confirm that FSD is indeed coming to Israel. “I’ve received the many referrals from Tesla drivers in Israel! Tesla drivers? Soon you won’t need to hold the steering wheel,” she wrote in her post.

FSD’s regulatory support in Israel

Regev stated that her Ministry views promoting innovative technologies as essential to improving both road safety and smart mobility. A working group led by Moshe Ben-Zaken, Director General of the Ministry of Transportation has reportedly been tasked to finalize the approval process, coordinating with regulatory and safety agencies to ensure compliance with international standards.

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In a comment to Geektime, Israel’s Ministry of Transportation and Road Safety noted that Regev is indeed supporting the release of FSD in the country. “Minister Regev sees great importance in promoting innovative technologies, and in particular in the entry of advanced driving systems (FSD) into the Israeli market, as part of the ministry’s policy to encourage innovation, safety, and smart transportation,” the Ministry stated.

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