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Tesla battery degradation analysis reveals how long a battery might last

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Teslanomics by Ben Sullins looks to answer the age-old question asked by likely every Tesla owner and would-be buyer of the luxury electric car: how long will my Tesla battery last?

By analyzing battery degradation data that’s been crowdsourced by Tesla owners worldwide – first compiled by Maarten Steinbuch in a Google sheet – Teslanomics aims to help owners better visualize the expected range loss in their Tesla over time. Maarten first tapped into a Dutch Belgium Tesla forum to initiate data gathering which required Model S owners to fully drain their Tesla battery to a near-zero state of charge before charging it back to a 100% capacity. The process theoretically will provide the most accuracy in terms of determining a battery’s true capacity. This is contrary to early beliefs that a battery undergoes a “training effect” if not fully depleted and charged to full capacity. Tesla owners that consistently charged to a state of charge between 50% to 75% often reported seeing less overall battery range, presumably because the charge state within each cylindrical lithium ion cell that makes up the overall battery pack is “out of balance”.

Ben’s analysis of battery state of charge data by vehicle age, number of battery charges and number of miles/km driven, can be visualized through an interactive chart which we provided below. The data can also be further broken down by region.

It’s worth noting that battery performance and longevity being highlighted by Teslanomics is based on Tesla’s 18650 lithium ion battery cell that’s currently being used in Model S and Model X vehicles. On the other hand, Tesla’s massive Gigafactory facility in Nevada began mass production of its newest high performance and high energy density 2170 cell early this year. The 2170 battery cells are currently being used in Tesla’s Powerpack 2 and Powerwall 2 energy storage systems, and will become the foundation for the upcoming Model 3.

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Tesla believes that the 2170 is perfect for electric vehicles, striking the ideal balance between cost, density, weight and performance. As such, the company has plans to eventually transition its entire fleet of vehicles to the newest battery cell. If history is any indicator, Tesla is unlikely to provide more than 2 weeks notice of the change to minimize any unnecessary impacts to sales of existing vehicles.

Though the battery degradation data along with the accompanying analysis by Teslanomics is based only on a small overall sample set of Tesla owners, the results do align with real world data from a high mileage Model S that registered over 200k mi (322k km). Electric mobility company Tesloop reported a 6% loss in range after 200k miles of driving.

Looking farther ahead to the 2170 cell-based vehicles, we expect battery degradation to become even more negligible, especially as Tesla continues to implement learnings captured through billions of miles driven by current vehicles equipped with the 18650 packs.

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I'm passionate about clean technology, sustainability and life. I've worked in manufacturing, IT, project management and environmental...and enjoy unpacking complex topics in layman's terms. TSLA investor. Find more of my words on my website or follow me on Twitter for all the latest. Tesla Referral link: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Cybertruck

Tesla updates Cybertruck owners about key Powershare feature

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is updating Cybertruck owners on its timeline of a massive feature that has yet to ship: Powershare with Powerwall.

Powershare is a bidirectional charging feature exclusive to Cybertruck, which allows the vehicle’s battery to act as a portable power source for homes, appliances, tools, other EVs, and more. It was announced in late 2023 as part of Tesla’s push into vehicle-to-everything energy sharing, and acting as a giant portable charger is the main advantage, as it can provide backup power during outages.

Cybertruck’s Powershare system supports both vehicle-to-load (V2L) and vehicle-to-home (V2H), making it flexible and well-rounded for a variety of applications.

However, even though the feature was promised with Cybertruck, it has yet to be shipped to vehicles. Tesla communicated with owners through email recently regarding Powershare with Powerwall, which essentially has the pickup act as an extended battery.

Powerwall discharge would be prioritized before tapping into the truck’s larger pack.

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However, Tesla is still working on getting the feature out to owners, an email said:

“We’re writing to let you know that the Powershare with Powerwall feature is still in development and is now scheduled for release in mid-2026. 

This new release date gives us additional time to design and test this feature, ensuring its ability to communicate and optimize energy sharing between your vehicle and many configurations and generations of Powerwall. We are also using this time to develop additional Powershare features that will help us continue to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.”

Owners have expressed some real disappointment in Tesla’s continuous delays in releasing the feature, as it was expected to be released by late 2024, but now has been pushed back several times to mid-2026, according to the email.

Foundation Series Cybertruck buyers paid extra, expecting the feature to be rolled out with their vehicle upon pickup.

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Cybertruck’s Lead Engineer, Wes Morrill, even commented on the holdup:

He said that “it turned out to be much harder than anticipated to make powershare work seamlessly with existing Powerwalls through existing wall connectors. Two grid-forming devices need to negotiate who will form and who will follow, depending on the state of charge of each, and they need to do this without a network and through multiple generations of hardware, and test and validate this process through rigorous certifications to ensure grid safety.”

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It’s nice to see the transparency, but it is justified for some Cybertruck owners to feel like they’ve been bait-and-switched.

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Energy

Tesla starts hiring efforts for Texas Megafactory

Tesla’s Brookshire site is expected to produce 10,000 Megapacks annually, equal to 40 gigawatt hours of energy storage.

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Tesla's Megapack Factory in Lathrop, CA (Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has officially begun hiring for its new $200 million Megafactory in Brookshire, Texas, a manufacturing hub expected to employ 1,500 people by 2028. The facility, which will build Tesla’s grid-scale Megapack batteries, is part of the company’s growing energy storage footprint. 

Tesla’s hiring efforts for the Texas Megafactory are hinted at by the job openings currently active on the company’s Careers website.

Tesla’s Texas Megafactory

Tesla’s Brookshire site is expected to produce 10,000 Megapacks annually, equal to 40 gigawatt hours of energy storage, similar to the Lathrop Megafactory in California. Tesla’s Careers website currently lists over 30 job openings for the site, from engineers, welders, and project managers. Each of the openings is listed for Brookshire, Texas.

The company has leased two buildings in Empire West Business Park, with over $194 million in combined property and equipment investment. Tesla’s agreement with Waller County includes a 60% property tax abatement, contingent on meeting employment benchmarks: 375 jobs by 2026, 750 by 2027, and 1,500 by 2028, as noted in a report from the Houston Business Journal. Tesla is required to employ at least 1,500 workers in the facility through the rest of the 10-year abatement period. 

Tesla’s clean energy boom

City officials have stated that Tesla’s arrival marks a turning point for the Texas city, as it highlights a shift from logistics to advanced clean energy manufacturing. Ramiro Bautista from Brookshire’s economic development office, highlighted this in a comment to the Journal

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“(Tesla) has great-paying jobs. Not just that, but the advanced manufacturing (and) clean energy is coming to the area,” he said. “So it’s not just your normal logistics manufacturing. This is advanced manufacturing coming to this area, and this brings a different type of job and investment into the local economy.”

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Energy

Tesla and Samsung SDI in talks over new US battery storage deal: report

The update was related by industry sources and initially reported by South Korean news outlets.

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Credit: Tesla Megapack

Recent reports have suggested that Tesla and Samsung SDI are in talks over a potential partnership to supply batteries for large-scale energy storage systems (ESS). 

The update was related by industry sources and initially reported by South Korean news outlets. 

ESS batteries to be built at Samsung’s Indiana plant

As noted in a report from Korea JoongAng Daily, the demand for energy storage systems has been growing rapidly in North America, thanks in no small part to the surge in AI investments across numerous companies. With this in mind, Tesla has reportedly approached Samsung SDI about a potential battery supply deal.

The deal is reportedly worth over 3 trillion Korean won (approximately $2.11 billion) and will span three years, according to The Korea Global Economic Daily. A battery supply deal with Samsung SDI could make sense for Tesla as the company already has a grid-scale battery, the Megapack, which is perfect for industrial use. Samsung SDI could simply supply cells for the EV maker.

Production of the batteries would reportedly take place at Samsung SDI’s joint venture factory with Stellantis in Indiana, which is currently under construction. Samsung SDI recently announced plans to use part of that plant’s EV lines to produce cells for ESS, with a targeted capacity of 30 GWh by the end of next year.

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Tesla and Samsung’s partnership

At present, only a handful of manufacturers, including Korea’s LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, SK On, and Japan’s Panasonic, are capable of producing energy storage-scale batteries domestically in the United States. A Samsung SDI official issued a comment about the matter, stating, “Nothing has been finalized regarding cooperation with Tesla.”

The possible energy storage system deal adds another layer to Tesla’s growing collaboration with Samsung, which is already in line as a partner in the upcoming production of Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips. Early sample manufacturing of the AI6 is expected to begin in South Korea, with mass production slated for Samsung’s Texas-based Taylor foundry when it starts operations.

The AI6 chip will power Tesla’s next wave of high-volume projects, including the Optimus humanoid robot and the autonomous Cybercab service. Musk has called the partnership with Samsung a “real collaboration,” adding that he personally plans to “walk the line” at the Taylor facility to speed up progress.

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