A federal judge has rejected Elon Musk’s push to block OpenAI’s for-profit conversion. The judge, however, opened the door for an expedited trial on Musk’s core claims against the artificial intelligence startup.

Injunction Denied, but Core Case Advances

U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers ruled on Tuesday that “Musk has not demonstrated likelihood of success on the merits” in his request for a preliminary injunction.” The judge flagged Musk’s recent $97.4 billion bid to buy OpenAI’s nonprofit as undercutting his “claim of irreparable harm,” noting it suggested competitive motives.

Judge Gonzales Rogers did offer to hold a trial in her California courtroom as early as this fall “given the public interest at stake and potential for harm if a conversion contrary to law occurred,” as noted in a report from the Associated Press. This effectively keeps Musk’s core allegations alive, including breach of contract tied to OpenAI’s nonprofit roots. 

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Musk, who invested $45 million in OpenAI from its founding until 2018, alleged that the firm violated its founding mission when it shifted its efforts into becoming a for-profit company.

Judge Gonzales Rogers, for her part, had previously questioned why the Tesla and SpaceX CEO invested tens of millions in OpenAI without a written contract. “That is just a lot of money” to invest “on a handshake,” the judge previously noted.

What Musk and OpenAI’s Lawyers Say

OpenAI has welcomed the court’s decision. In a statement, the artificial intelligence startup stated that, “This has always been about competition. Elon’s own emails show that he wanted to merge a for-profit OpenAI into Tesla. That would have been great for his personal benefit, but not for our mission or U.S. interests.”

Elon Musk lawyer Marc Toberoff also noted that he is pleased about the judge’s decision to offer an expedited trial on the lawsuit’s core claims. “We look forward to a jury confirming that Altman accepted Musk’s charitable contributions, knowing full well they had to be used for the public’s benefit rather than his own enrichment,” the lawyer stated.

United States President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are threatening Detroit’s automakers, with Barclays analysts warning of a potential profit hit for Ford, GM, and Stellantis.

Tesla will likely be safe from the adverse effects of Trump’s tariffs, however, as the company produces its vehicles in the United States.

Trump Tariff Threat

As noted in a Fortune report, one out of four cars sold in the United States are built in either of the two countries. For GM and Stellantis, over a third of their vehicles that are intended for sale in the United States are produced in Mexico and Canada. 

The Trump administration’s tariffs could tack on at least $3,000 more per vehicle, Barclays analysts estimated. “Without any adjustment, we estimate it could wipe out effectively all profits for the D3,” the analysts noted.

Auto executives have expressed their reservations about the effect of Trump’s tariffs against Canada and Mexico. In a comment to Fortune last month, Ford CEO Jim Farley noted that if the Trump administration does move forward with its planned import duties, it would cost the U.S. auto industry billions of dollars in profit headwinds. 

“We would have to make some major strategy shifts in the U.S., build new plants et cetera, if this persists. Obviously, it’s a devastating impact,” Farley noted.

Tesla Dodges Bullet

Tesla could very well sidestep the worst of the tariffs, as the EV maker assembles the vehicles it sells in the U.S. within the country with minimal reliance on Mexican parts. Elon Musk has also noted that Tesla’s planned Gigafactory Mexico has been paused for now.

Tesla’s vehicles, such as the Model Y and the Model 3, have been listed as among the most American-made cars over the years. Tesla’s vehicle production facilities in the United States such as the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas are also among the largest and most productive auto plants in the country.

Barclays’ Warning

Overall, Barclays analysts noted that if Trump’s high import duties are left in place, automakers such as Ford, GM, and Stellantis will likely feel a lot of pain. This may be the case even if the tariffs themselves are reduced.

“Given the potential for significant disruption ahead if the tariffs stick, we believe it’s a reminder as to why tariffs of this magnitude are unlikely to stick… Even if the tariffs are scaled back to something more modest (or are used to bring content back to the U.S.), it promises to add cost to vehicles, likely causing inflation,” the Barclays analysts warned.

Goldman Sachs slightly cut its 12-month price target for Tesla from $345 to $320, citing weaker-than-expected vehicle deliveries in key regions and demand challenges.

“We lower our below consensus delivery estimates for Tesla, reflecting the quarter-to-date data for key regions (i.e., China, Europe, and the US), as well as what we believe are broader demand trends,” noted Goldman Sachs analysts.

The investment firm predicts Tesla will report Q1 2025 deliveries of 375,000 units, down from its previous forecast of 399,000 units. For perspective, the consensus for Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries is 426,000 vehicles.

Goldman Sach’s prediction for Tesla in the first quarter is slightly above the company’s results in Q1 2024 when it delivered 386,810 units. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for Tesla is slightly above the company’s Q1 2023 results, when it delivered 422,875 vehicles.

The bank stated that Tesla’s transition to the new Model Y contributed to its weak Q1 delivery forecast. However, it expects Giga Shanghai’s production ramp for the Model Y Juniper to improve deliveries in China this month. Goldman Sachs also observed that underlying demand for Teslas is “somewhat weaker” than previously expected.

It notes that Tesla’s US deliveries in February are “tracking flattish year-over-year.” In Europe, Goldman Sachs states Tesla registrations show a “>40% year-over-year decline” in January and a mid-to-high 20% drop in February in key markets like the United Kingdom and Spain. Meanwhile, in China, CPCA data reveal that Tesla’s retail sales have seen a mid-single-digit decline year-over-year.

Despite its dreary predictions for Tesla in the short term, Goldman Sachs sees a bright future for the company. The bank still believes Tesla’s software revenue will grow long-term. It acknowledges Tesla’s progress with version 13 of Full Self-Driving (FSD).

However, it predicts that Tesla could struggle with monetizing FSD in China, where more competitors offer hand-free ADAS solutions. Goldman Sachs notes that Chinese competitors do not charge for incremental software packages.

Goldman Sachs is maintaining a Neutral rating on Tesla stock, emphasizing that its 2025 earnings estimates are below consensus.