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How will Tesla Version 8 compare to current Autopilot in the real world?

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Tesla’s upcoming Version 8 software will be the company’s most significant Autopilot upgrade since its October 2014 initial release, but how will these updates compare to current Autopilot behavior in the real world?

This will be the first time the company will switch from using the vehicle’s front-facing camera as the core hardware responsible for visual image recognition, to radar technology which will now become the primary sensor used in creating a virtual picture of the vehicle’s surroundings.

With these improvements, to be rolled out via an over-the-air software update in the coming weeks, Model S equipped with the Autopilot hardware suite and Model X should theoretically be able to handle emergency braking situations with more precision, provide a smoother Traffic Aware Cruise Control (TACC) experience, take highway exits on its own, and provide drivers and passengers with an overall safer experience.

Let’s take a look at each of these features and see how Autopilot in Version 8 will differ from current Version 7 capabilities.

Automatic Emergency Braking

Following the much publicized death of Joshua Brown after his Model S crashed into the side of a tractor trailer while driving on Autopilot, reliability of Autopilot’s Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) feature was immediately put to question. Tesla released a statement stating that the high, white side of the tractor trailer, combined with a radar signature that would have looked very similar to an overhead sign, caused automatic braking not to fire. “Since January 2016, Autopilot activates automatic emergency braking in response to any interruption of the ground plane in the path of the vehicle that cross-checks against a consistent radar signature,” said Tesla.

Spy shots taken from the Naval Air Station reveal Tesla was testing and calibrating its AEB system this past summer. But despite the tests which seemingly show a Model S automatically braking in a staged collision event, Tesla has been overly cautious when it comes to activation of its AEB feature. AEB is reliant on imagery received from its front-facing camera, and supplemented by radar input, to decide on the degree of confidence that would trigger a braking event.

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Some Tesla owners have even taken it upon themselves to stage scenarios that would seemingly trigger the AEB response of the vehicle, but to no avail leaving further mystery as to how AEB works.

The current Autopilot system under Version 7 is limited in its ability to reliably detect people or pinpoint false positives such as reflective objects that may appear larger than they are. Tesla uses the concave bottom of a soda can as an example. When the radar signal is reflected back from the can’s bottom dish-shaped surface, the reflected signal is amplified to many times its actual size leading the radar to believe there’s a large object before it. Because of that, programming the AEB system to suddenly engage could lead to a dangerous situation so Tesla decided to limit the scenarios that could actually trigger an automatic emergency braking response.

However, Version 8 will combine the power of fleet learning with “radar snapshots” to improve the vehicle’s ability to more accurately depict the circumstances of an event. In other words, we can expect Autopilot under Version 8 to have a much higher degree of confidence when it comes to engaging automatic emergency braking. Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes this set up will provide safety improvements by a factor of three over existing Autopilot.

Traffic Aware Cruise Control

Tesla-Autopilot-Traffic-Rain

Beyond being able to track a vehicle that’s directly in front of the car, Version 8 of Autopilot will also be able to see the vehicle ahead of that. Tesla describes this update as follows: Tesla will also be able to bounce the radar signal under a vehicle in front – using the radar pulse signature and photon time of flight to distinguish the signal – and still brake even when trailing a car that is opaque to both vision and radar. The car in front might hit the UFO in dense fog, but the Tesla will not.

The improvement will lead to smoother braking events when TACC is engaged since Autopilot will no longer solely rely on the actions from the vehicle before it. If a hard braking event happened in front of the vehicle that Autopilot is immediately tracking, Version 8 will be able to identify it and slow the Model S (or Model X) even before the vehicle directly ahead may have applied the brakes.

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The following video captures an incident whereby the vehicle being tracked by Version 7 of Autopilot could not see the hard braking event that took place two cars ahead. TACC seemingly did not have enough time to stop the Model S.

Being able to see two cars ahead in Version 8 will provide a smoother TACC experience and increased safety.

Improved Auto Lane Change and Freeway Exiting

What we’re particularly excited about is the new feature in Version 8.1 that will allow an Autopilot-equipped Model S and Model X to take highway exits using the onboard navigation system.

Currently, Version 7 of Autopilot is capable of handling lane changes when the driver explicitly uses the turn signal stalk. Signaling left and the vehicle will make a left lane change, and vice versa. However with the ability to punch in a destination through Tesla Nav and have the vehicle assist with freeway exiting, assuming that’s part of the route, in our minds, Tesla is taking a critical step towards the ultimate goal of building fully autonomous self-driving vehicles. It’s a small step, but nonetheless it’s a notable step.

Photo credit: Rob M.

Full details of Tesla Version 8 can be found here.

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Gene has been obsessed with cars since before he could legally sit in the front seat. Writer, researcher, unofficial CS support, accountant, native suit guy when needed, and overall stick poker. He approaches every story the way he approaches a road trip: with too much enthusiasm, not enough planning, and a surprisingly good outcome. gene@teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla uber bull Ron Baron says ‘the time to buy the stock is now’

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Credit: Tesla

In a new interview on Wednesday, Tesla uber bull Ron Baron said that anyone looking to buy the company’s stock should do so as soon as they can.

Baron, founder and CEO of Baron Capital and one of Tesla’s most persistent institutional bulls, used a CNBC Squawk Box appearance on Wednesday to deliver a familiar message with fresh urgency: In his opinion, Tesla stock is a buy:

“The time to buy the stock is now. FSD is catching on, and it’s going to be bigger and bigger. 55% of new buyers are buying it (Teslas) with FSD. It’s going to be everywhere. It’s safer.”

The Baron Capital frontman’s case is built around Full Self-Driving. Tesla reported 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions in the second quarter, up 56 percent year over year, and company officials have said roughly 55 percent of new North American deliveries left with a subscription enabled.

Baron framed that attach rate as proof the product is moving from enthusiast extra to default expectation, and as a reason software, not just vehicle volume, should drive the next phase of value.

His conviction on Tesla shares is not theoretical, as Baron Capital made its first Tesla investment in 2014, after years of meetings that began around the 2010 IPO roadshow. The firm later built a large SpaceX position starting in 2017.

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Baron said those Musk-led bets have generated about $30 billion of the $71 billion in profits Baron Capital has produced for clients. He put the firm’s current exposure at roughly $25 billion in SpaceX and $5 billion in Tesla. Personally, he described SpaceX as his largest holding, at about $5 billion, with about $1.5 billion in Tesla and additional Tesla exposure through the firm’s funds.

That concentration is also a statement of loyalty. Asked about talk of a SpaceX-Tesla combination, Baron said he had already walked Elon Musk through arguments for and against a deal, then declined to repeat them on air. His public position was simpler: “Whatever you decide is better is what I’m going to support,” he said to Musk.

Baron also said that he picked up the farewell edition of the Model S after Tesla decided to sunset the vehicle earlier this year, calling it his favorite car he’s ever driven.

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SpaceX’s next Starship launch is about to attempt its biggest leap yet

SpaceX targets September 22 for Starship Flight 14, its first attempt to reach real orbit.

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SpaceX has set September 22 as the target date for Starship’s 14th test flight, and this one carries a different goal than any of the 13 that came before it. Every previous Starship mission has intentionally flown a suborbital arc, reentering the atmosphere within the same hour it launched. Flight 14 is designed to send the craft into a genuine orbit around Earth for the first time.

The launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. Central time at Starbase in South Texas and runs for 75 minutes, pending regulatory approval, according to SpaceX’s mission description published Tuesday. If the flight goes as planned, Starship will circle the planet roughly six times at an altitude near 275 kilometers over about ten hours before a deorbit burn sends it toward a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile, a departure from the Indian Ocean recoveries used on the last several flights.

The mission also marks the first attempt to put a working batch of Starlink V3 satellites into actual service. Flight 13 carried 20 of the new satellites in July, but because that mission never left a suborbital trajectory, the payload reentered along with the ship instead of separating into orbit.

SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit

Each V3 satellite is rated for roughly one terabit per second of downlink capacity, so a successful deployment on Flight 14 would be SpaceX’s largest single jump in network bandwidth since Starlink began flying on Falcon 9.

Flight 13 still did the heavier lifting on the technical side. That July mission flew a deliberately more stressful reentry profile to test Starship’s heat shield, and the ship survived its softest splashdown yet, intact enough for drone inspections shortly after landing. Elon Musk said the flight delivered “all the heat shield data we needed and then some,” a result Teslarati covered in detail when he later said SpaceX had solved the vehicle’s biggest reusability challenge. Flight 14 is where SpaceX starts spending that confidence on an actual orbital insertion rather than another controlled fall back to Earth.

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One thing Flight 14 will not attempt is a tower catch of the ship. Musk floated the idea right after Flight 13, but walked the timeline back in August, saying a catch attempt was more likely “in a few months.” The Super Heavy booster will still aim for its own recovery, targeting an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America, the same approach used on recent flights.

September 22 is SpaceX’s own target, not a locked date. Starship’s schedule has slipped before over hardware readiness and FAA sign off, and the company has said as much in its own mission notes. But the plan itself represents the clearest marker yet that Starship is moving from a suborbital test program into something meant to carry paying payloads and, eventually, people.

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Elon Musk gives his most telling Tesla-SpaceX merger conversation yet

Elon Musk hinted a Tesla-SpaceX merger could be coming, and Wall Street is taking notice.

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Elon Musk gave his clearest signal yet that Tesla and SpaceX could eventually combine, telling the All-In Summit in Los Angeles that the two companies’ deepening collaboration makes the question worth asking. Sawyer Merritt first surfaced the highlight on X Tuesday.

Asked directly why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate given how closely they already work together, Musk told hosts at the summit: “Great question there. With all this collaboration, on so many levels, who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration in so many areas.” SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, who joined Musk on stage, added that SpaceX personnel have already moved into xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps, saying the businesses are integrating “faster than I thought,” though “not fully integrated yet,”

The comments landed on top of merger speculation that has been building on Wall Street for months. JPMorgan has called a tie-up “strategically coherent on paper,” pointing to overlapping ambitions in AI, robotics, energy, transportation and space. Jefferies went further, estimating Musk could retain roughly 55.3 percent voting control in a deal structured without a premium, a scenario that would still leave room for Tesla shareholders to come out ahead. On Kalshi, traders now put the odds of a merger before 2028 at 66 percent.

Tesla’s stake in SpaceX, still under one percent, traces back to its earlier investment in xAI, which converted to SpaceX equity after SpaceX absorbed the AI company. The two are also jointly building Terafab, a chip facility in Austin meant to serve both Tesla’s AI computing needs and SpaceX’s satellite ambitions. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has stood by a 2027 merger timeline for months, and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest recently floated a similar case, an idea Musk pushed back on directly at the time.

Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking

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The timing adds another layer. Tesla has scheduled an October 1 unveiling for its next generation Roadster at a venue near SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas test site, using the phrase “Go for launch” in its promotional material. Both stocks dipped roughly 2 percent Monday before recovering slightly in premarket trading Tuesday, with SpaceX shares up about 0.4 percent and Tesla essentially flat.

Musk stopped short of confirming anything is in motion. But unlike his past denials of a corporate restructuring, this response didn’t rule one out, and it came with Shotwell sitting next to him describing an integration that’s already underway.

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