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Tesla (TSLA) could hit $464, analyst cites ‘near-monopolistic opportunity’

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Germany-based Berenberg has upgraded Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to a ‘Buy’ rating from ‘Hold’, citing the Elon Musk-led electric car maker has a ‘near-monopolistic opportunity’ and won’t face mass-market EV competition from traditional manufacturers. The firm also raised Tesla’s price forecast from $193 to $464, representing a near 30% rally from Monday’s close.

Berenberg’s Alexander Haissl explains in a note to clients sent Monday that big automakers looking to enter the electric vehicle space have ‘no clear pathway to high-volume EV production’, as they face a steep uphill battle against Silicon Valley-based Tesla. First deliveries of Tesla’s mass market Model 3 that’s seen as the industry-changing vehicle is roughly a month away.

‘With no clear pathway to high-volume EV production for these OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] before the mid-2020s, Tesla will be given a near-monopolistic opportunity to gain market share and outcompete the incumbent automotive industry.’ notes Haissl.

Haissl also predicts that Tesla will invest nearly $33 billion into growth opportunities over the next five years, which represents 40 percent more than Daimler and Volkswagen combined. The analyst believes that Tesla’s ‘best-in-class cost base and production processes’ will allow it to generate 50 percent more profit per vehicle than its competitors in the coming years.

‘Tesla’s disruptive potential encompasses the vehicle, the entire production process and the product-to-market strategy. Once the business reaches scale, the cash generation potential is significantly superior to existing premium OEMs,’ writes Haissl in his note to clients.

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According to FactSet, the analyst’s $464 price target for Tesla, from $193, is the highest out of 19 analysts on Wall Street. The upgraded target represents a 29 percent upside from Monday’s $359.01 close.

Tesla shares are trading up over 2 percent at the time of this writing at $367.39.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk praises Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater for accumulating TSLA stock

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

A recent 13-F filing from legendary investor and billionaire Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has revealed that the hedge fund has added over $62 million worth of Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) to its portfolio.

Elon Musk has praised the billionaire’s investment in a post on X.

Bridgewater’s TSLA stake:

  • As per Bridgewater’s 13-F filing, it currently holds 153,589 shares of TSLA, which costs $62,025,382.
  • The firm added the TSLA shares in the fourth quarter.
  • Tesla shares gained momentum after its Q3 2024 earnings call, and it only gained more strength after the election of U.S. President Donald Trump.
  • At the end of 2024, Tesla shares were up 62%, as noted in a MarketWatch report.
  • Tesla stock is still up 88% over 12 months despite a steep drop over the past month.

A vote of confidence: 

  • Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, so the firm’s stake in TSLA could be interpreted as a vote of confidence in the electric vehicle maker.
  • Elon Musk has praised the firm’s investment. In a post on X, Musk noted that Bridgewater’s investment was a “smart move.”
  • Elon Musk has been quite consistent on his idea that Tesla could eventually become the world’s most valuable company. He emphasized this point during the Q4 2024 earnings call.
  • “I see a path. I’m not saying it’s an easy path but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. Not even close. There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined,” Musk said.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Tesla (TSLA) gets $475 price target and “Buy” rating from Benchmark

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) have received a “Buy” rating and a $475 per share price target from Benchmark.

Benchmark’s price target is based on 68.2 times its 2028 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), as noted in a Morningstar report.

Tesla rating:

  • In a note to clients, Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that Tesla has outlined a path towards more growth through several of its initiatives.
  • These include Tesla’s work in autonomous driving systems, robotics, and energy generation.
  • The company could also make more headway into the electric vehicle segment.
  • “The company has outlined a path for growth with a more affordable vehicle scheduled for 1H25, unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service this June in Austin, TX, and Optimus robot production ramp through 2026 and beyond,” the analyst stated.

More potential:

  • While he sees potential in Tesla, the Benchmark analyst noted that his current model only incorporates vehicle growth. 
  • Thus, there could be “significant potential upside” if the company’s autonomous vehicle program and Optimus are scaled.
  • “Tesla’s market leadership, near-term catalysts, strong management, and diversified business justify the stock’s market premium,” Legg noted.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Tesla is ‘better-positioned’ as a company and as a stock as tariff situation escalates

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The Cybertruck-towed Model Y ad at Hayden Planetarium. Credit: Tesla North America | X

Tesla is “better-positioned” as a company and as a stock as the tariff situation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada continues to escalate as President Donald Trump announced sanctions against those countries.

Analysts at Piper Sandler are unconcerned regarding Tesla’s position as a high-level stock holding as the tariff drama continues to unfold. This is mostly due to its reputation as a vehicle manufacturer in the domestic market, especially as it holds a distinct advantage of having some of the most American-made vehicles in the country.

Analysts at the firm, led by Alexander Potter, said Tesla is “one of the most defensive stocks” in the automotive sector as the tariff situation continues.

The defensive play comes from the nature of the stock, which should not be too impacted from a U.S. standpoint because of its focus on building vehicles and sourcing parts from manufacturers and companies based in the United States. Tesla has held the distinct title of having several of the most American-made cars, based on annual studies from Cars.com.

Its most recent study, released in June 2024, showed that the Model Y, Model S, and Model X are three of the top ten vehicles with the most U.S.-based manufacturing.

Tesla captures three spots in Cars.com’s American-Made Index, only U.S. manufacturer in list

The year prior, Tesla swept the top four spots of the study.

Piper Sandler analysts highlighted this point in a new note on Monday morning amidst increasing tension between the U.S. and Canada, as Mexico has already started to work with the Trump Administration on a solution:

“Tesla assembles five vehicles in the U.S., and all five rank among the most American-made cars.”

However, with that being said, there is certainly the potential for things to get tougher. The analysts believe that Tesla, while potentially impacted, will be in a better position than most companies because of their domestic position:

“If nothing changes in the next few days, tariffs will almost certainly deal a crippling blow to automotive supply chains in North America. [There is a possibility that] Trump capitulates in some way (perhaps he’ll delay implementation, in an effort to save face).”

There is no evidence that Tesla will be completely bulletproof when it comes to these potential impacts. However, it is definitely better insulated than other companies.

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Please email me with questions and comments at joey@teslarati.com. I’d love to chat! You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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