Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) rallies +4.5% as Wall Street shrugs off Q4 delivery miss
While the initial after market reaction to the miss in Q4 2016 production and deliveries was negative, reaction from Wall Street tell a different story as the company’s stock (Nasdaq: TSLA) quickly rallied to a 4.5% gain.
We’ve provided some market reactions from analysts watching the stock.
Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla and said that “with TSLA announcing shipments of ~22.2k cars in 4Q16, we are expecting a better- than-feared trade over the next couple of days. While the company missed its 4Q16 shipment guidance by over 10% for the quarter, we believe expectations had dropped significantly below guidance due to media reports of slow sell-through. We anticipate investors will now shift focus to the Gigafactory ramp, timing of Model 3 production, and the company’s ability to generate cash from operations. We continue to be cautious about potential margin drag given simultaneous Model 3 and Gigafactory ramp plus purchase commitments for solar modules from its Buffalo facility.”
Lou Whiteman of TheStreet.com in a piece titled “Wall Street Still Loves Tesla and This Chart Proves It” stated that “While the results provided fresh fodder for the bears, they didn’t do enough to crush Wall Street’s long love affair with Elon Musk’s baby. Investors may also be optimistic ahead of a previously-planned analyst tour of the company’s Gigafactory battery facility scheduled for Wednesday.” Additionally he positively stated that “The total deliveries, though a miss, by far surpassed 2015’s total of about 50,000.” “The company has a history of missing internal deadlines, but simply showing progress towards bringing the Model 3 to market should be enough to keep bulls on board and allow Tesla to return to the capital markets to raise more cash if needed.”
TheStreet.com has been bearish on Tesla for a long time, and Lou warned that “even if the Model 3 arrives on time, there are still questions about whether the company can turn a profit on the vehicle. Tesla has targeted a base price of $35,000 for the vehicle, but skeptics including Stanphyl Capital managing member and portfolio manager Mark Spiegel estimate it might cost the company upwards of $48,000 per unit to produce the car.”
Jim Cramer, also of TheStreet.com, said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” that “the market isn’t having a stronger reaction because the company seems to be coated with Teflon, meaning that it can withstand things like a lower-than-expected delivery number.” “It should be called Teflon Motors because I don’t think this will matter. Tesla seems to be “charmed,” and it’s still making a lot of cars, like Jay Leno noted,” Cramer noted. “In particular, Tesla’s sales numbers in China jumped dramatically this past year, which is “important. But regardless, people are not going to react to this news. The analysts aren’t going to change their view on it. I think that’s the important way to look at it. They’re just not going to change. No ‘buy’ to ‘holds.’”, Cramer reiterated.
In a Marketwatch story titled “Here’s why Tesla is Baird’s top stock-market pick for 2017“, analyst Ben Kallo was quoted saying that he”expects the company’s energy business and the launch of the Model 3 electric sedan will exceed expectations.” He went on saying that “Tesla energy storage business and growth opportunity is not currently reflected in share prices”. Ben named Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) his “top pick for 2017” and reiterated an Outperform rating and price target of $338. He “does not believe the Q4 delivery number (expected by Jan. 3) will be an overhang and recommends buying shares heading into 2017 as they believe the stock will make new highs.
As I predicted on Tuesday, several unrelated reports covered the positive fact that Tesla finally begun producing batteries at the Gigafactory, lead by information coming from Tesla’s invite-only ‘investor event’. Everyone from Reuters to Bloomberg and the WSJ reported this news in their opening pages.
Cadie Thompson reported on Business Insider that Tesla began production of battery cells at its Gigafactory on Wednesday. “The battery cells currently in production will be used for Tesla’s rechargeable home battery, Powerwall 2, as well as its massive commercial battery, Powerpack 2. The electric-car maker said in a statement that it aims to begin production of battery cells for the Model 3, its first mass-market car, sometime in the second quarter.”
Tom Randall of Bloomberg, in an article titled “Tesla Flips the Switch on the Gigafactory” stated that “Musk meets a deadline: Battery-cell production begins at what will soon be the world’s biggest factory—with thousands of additional jobs.”
He goes on stating that “the Gigafactory has been activated. Hidden in the scrubland east of Reno, Nev., where cowboys gamble and wild horses still roam—a diamond-shaped factory of outlandish proportions is emerging from the sweat and promises of Tesla CEO Elon Musk. It’s known as the Gigafactory, and today its first battery cells are rolling off production lines to power the company’s energy storage products and, before long, the Model 3 electric car.”
Tom added that “by 2018, the Gigafactory, which is less than a third complete today, will be staffed by 6,500 full-time Reno-based employees and singlehandedly double the world’s production capacity for lithium-ion batteries, according to a new hiring forecast from Tesla.”
Tesla bull Wedbush has responded to the company’s lackluster Q1 delivery figures, which were released on Wednesday morning in a new note from analyst Dan Ives.
Tesla reported deliveries of 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of the year, a far cry from the Wall Street estimate of 352,000 and whisper numbers of roughly 350,000. At first glance, it seems to be a disaster, but Tesla said it lost “several weeks of production” in Q1 due to the ramp of the new Model Y at all four of its vehicle production factories.
This could be part of the reason that the company experienced a quarter of this performance, but there are also factors stemming from CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the U.S. government, which has created some pushback in various markets.
It’s tough to say how much of each issue caused this type of quarter, but Ives wrote in a note to investors that Wedbush could not look at this “with rose-colored glasses,” as the performance “was a disaster on every metric.”
Ives believes it is time for Musk to make a move:
“The Street and us knew a bad 1Q was coming but this was even worse than expected. The time has come for Musk….it’s a fork in the road moment. The more political he gets with DOGE the more the brand suffers, there is no debate. This quarter was an example of the damage Musk is causing Tesla. This continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to navigate this brand tornado crisis moment and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days ahead.”
Interestingly, the stock dropped over 5 percent after the delivery report. It quickly rebounded 8 percent and is currently up over 5 percent on the day after a report from Politico stated that Musk and President Donald Trump have discussed the CEO stepping back from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Based on that, it seems that investors were looking for Musk to step back from his government duties and show more public attention to Tesla. Realistically, we do not know how much of his time is being devoted to Tesla and its EV initiative. However, it seems investors were ready to hear something along the lines of Musk being more involved and speaking openly about Tesla and its projects.
It’s not all bad. Ives still recognizes Tesla’s prowess with the rollout of robotaxi and Full Self-Driving and how much impact it could have moving forward:
“Autonomous remains the biggest transformation to the auto industry in modern-day history and in our view, Tesla will own the autonomous market in the US and globally with the launch of unsupervised FSD in Austin kicking off the autonomous era at Tesla that we value at $1 trillion alone on a sum-of-the-parts valuation…”
With that being said, he also wants Musk to balance responsibilities with DOGE and Tesla:
“BUT…Musk needs to stop this political firestorm and balance being CEO of Tesla with DOGE. The future is so bright but this is a full blown crisis Tesla is navigating now and its primarily self-inflected. We remain firmly bullish on the long-term Tesla story but Musk needs to get his act together or else unfortunately darker times are ahead for Tesla.”
Tesla shares are trading at $283.01, up 5.42% at 1:57 p.m. on the East Coast.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) shares date for “Company Update” and Q1 2025 earnings call
Tesla seems to be planning something slightly different for the upcoming event.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has announced the date for its upcoming first quarter 2025 earnings call.
Interestingly enough, the company seems to be planning something slightly different for the upcoming event.
Tesla Q1 2025 Earnings Call Date
As shared by Tesla in its Q1 2025 vehicle production and delivery report, the company would be holding its first-quarter earnings call on Tuesday, April 22, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Similar to past earnings calls, the event will be livestreamed. An archived version of the session would also be shared on the company’s website.
Prior to the earnings call, Tesla will be releasing its Q1 2025 Update Letter. The Q1 2025 Update Letter will be released after markets close on April 22.
A Company Update
Tesla enthusiasts and TSLA bulls have observed that the electric vehicle maker adjusted its wording a bit in its Q1 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. As could be seen in the release, Tesla noted that it would also be holding a “Company Update” on April 22. This is the first time that such an event has been referenced by the electric vehicle maker with its quarterly earnings call.
“In addition to posting first quarter results, Tesla management will hold a live company update and question and answer webcast that day,” Tesla wrote in its Q1 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. Tesla also referenced a “Company Update” in a post on its official X account.
Expectations are high that Tesla will discuss some of its highly anticipated projects during its Company Update. These may include, among other things, new affordable vehicles that were mentioned in the Q4 and Full Year 2024 Update Letter.
“Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up,” Tesla wrote.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) reports 336,681 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025
The report was published on the company’s Investor Relations website.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its first quarter 2025 vehicle delivery and production report.
The report was published on the company’s Investor Relations website.
Q1 2025 Deliveries
In the first quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 336,681 vehicles globally. This is comprised of 323,800 Model 3 and Model Y, as well as 12,881 units of Tesla’s other models.
In comparison, Tesla’s company-compiled consensus indicated that analysts were expecting 377,592 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025. FactSet estimates were even more optimistic, with analysts expecting vehicle deliveries of 407,900 units in the first quarter.
Q1 2025 Production
Tesla produced a total of 362,615 vehicles in the first quarter across its factories globally. From this number, a total of 345,454 units were comprised of the Model 3 and Model Y, and 17,161 were comprised of the company’s other models.
In its Q1 2025 vehicle production and delivery report, Tesla noted that the changeover of its Model Y lines across Gigafactory Texas, Fremont Factory, Gigafactory Shanghai, and Gigafactory Berlin, led to the loss of several weeks’ worth of production in the quarter. The vehicle, however, is now being ramped.
TSLA Reaction
While Tesla missed analysts’ expectations, investors do not seem to be too disappointed. As per writing, TSLA stock is just down 1.87% at $263.43 per share.
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