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Tesla posts ‘first positive surprise of year’ as Morgan Stanley breaks down Q2
Tesla posted what Morgan Stanley called its “first positive surprise of the year” as it beat delivery expectations for Q2 by around 6,000 units.
On Tuesday, Tesla reported its quarterly deliveries at 443,956, beating what Wall Street expected with its consensus figures at 438,019.
Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates
The beat was a big step in the right direction for Tesla, which has struggled to post any positive news so far in 2024 in terms of the grand scale. The automaker has struggled with growth, an expected bottleneck in its trek for EV sector domination as it finds itself in between two growth periods.
However, the Q2 numbers were labeled the “first positive surprise of the year” by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who said there were a few things to be happy about.
-->Delivery Beat
Tesla beat delivery expectations, but there is still a long way to go before bulls can truly be pleased with what they see. Although they increased deliveries quarter-over-quarter, the Q2 figures are lower than what Tesla reported in Q2 last year.
In order to keep things flat in terms of the annual growth rate and report 0 percent instead of a loss, Tesla will need to grow deliveries in the second half of next year by roughly 6 percent.
Inventory Reduction
Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than it produced, which means its inventory is starting to thin out.
This is a good thing from a consumer perspective because, in theory, it means that Tesla cannot keep up with consumer interest. It basically means demand for its vehicles is healthy, and people are willing to buy an inventory vehicle.
Jonas writes:
-->“Tesla delivered 33k units more than it produced in 2Q, driving a 7-day reduction in days’ supply of inventory (on a full calendar day basis) in the quarter. The 2Q inventory reduction substantially (but not fully) offsets the incresae in inventory seen in 1Q. At an ATP of $45k/unit this, by itself, drives a $1.5bn working capital inflow during the quarter — higher than the $600mm tailwind we have expected. Our 2Q forecast for $0.9bn FCF burn looks incrementally more conservative following this print.”
Energy Storage Deployments
Perhaps the biggest piece of information from the delivery report had nothing to do with cars in the slightest.
Tesla reported that it deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, its biggest in history by a wide margin.
This was a 132 percent increase from Q1 2024, which was previously its largest deployment. Tesla rolled out 4.053 GWh of energy during this three-month span.
Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024
-->Jonas said the news was a “show stealer” and was nearly two-times what Morgan Stanley predicted for the calendar year.
The firm believes this could be something Tesla investors should pay attention to in the coming months:
“As Gen AI acceleration spurs a multigenerational increase in energy demand, electricity generation, and data center investment, we believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130bn) as the business uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”
Tesla Mojo
Jonas said that two weeks ago, clients were preparing for a rejection in ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package. Now, they’re asking about “positive catalysts for 2Q and beyond.”
Investors were also asked this interesting question:
-->“Is this the same Tesla from early June?”
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News
Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) testing gains major ground in Spain
Based on information posted by the Dirección General de Tráfico (DGT), it appears that Tesla is already busy testing FSD in the country.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) program is accelerating across Europe, with Spain emerging as a key testing hub under the country’s new ES-AV framework program.
Based on information posted by the Dirección General de Tráfico (DGT), it appears that Tesla is already busy testing FSD in the country.
Spain’s ES-AV framework
Spain’s DGT launched the ES-AV Program in July 2025 to standardize testing for automated vehicles from prototypes to pre-homologation stages. The DGT described the purpose of the program on its official website.
“The program is designed to complement and enhance oversight, regulation, research, and transparency efforts, as well as to support innovation and advancements in automotive technology and industry. This framework also aims to capitalize on the opportunity to position Spain as a pioneer and leader in automated vehicle technology, seeking to provide solutions that help overcome or alleviate certain shortcomings or negative externalities of the current transportation system,” the DGT wrote.
The program identifies three testing phases based on technological maturity and the scope of a company’s operations. Each phase has a set of minimum eligibility requirements, and applicants must indicate which phase they wish to participate in, at least based on their specific technological development.
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Tesla FSD tests
As noted by Tesla watcher Kees Roelandschap on X, the DGT’s new framework effectively gives the green flight for nationwide FSD testing. So far, Tesla Spain has a total of 19 vehicles authorized to test FSD on the country’s roads, though it would not be surprising if this fleet grows in the coming months.
The start date for the program is listed at November 27, 2025 to November 26, 2027. The DGT also noted that unlimited FSD tests could be done across Spain on any national route. And since Tesla is already in Phase 3 of the ES-AV Program, onboard safety operators are optional. Remote monitoring would also be allowed.
Tesla’s FSD tests in Spain could help the company gain a lot of real-world data on the country’s roads. Considering the scope of tests that are allowed for the electric vehicle maker, it seems like Spain would be one of the European countries that would be friendly to FSD’s operations. So far, Tesla’s FSD push in Europe is notable, with the company holding FSD demonstrations in Germany, France, and Italy. Tesla is also pushing for national approval in the Netherlands in early 2026.
News
Tesla FSD V14.2.1 is earning rave reviews from users in diverse conditions
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software continues its rapid evolution, with the latest V14.2.1 update drawing widespread praise.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software continues its rapid evolution, with the latest V14.2.1 update drawing widespread praise for its smoother performance and smarter decision-making.
Videos and firsthand accounts from Tesla owners highlight V14.2.1 as an update that improves navigation responsiveness, sign recognition, and overall fluidity, among other things. Some drivers have even described it as “more alive than ever,” hinting at the system eventually feeling “sentient,” as Elon Musk has predicted.
FSD V14.2.1 first impressions
Early adopters are buzzing about how V14.2.1 feels less intrusive while staying vigilant. In a post shared on X, Tesla owner @LactoseLunatic described the update as a “huge leap forward,” adding that the system remains “incredibly assertive but still safe.”
Another Tesla driver, Devin Olsenn, who logged ~600 km on V14.2.1, reported no safety disengagements, with the car feeling “more alive than ever.” The Tesla owner noted that his wife now defaults to using FSD V14, as the system is already very smooth and refined.
Adverse weather and regulatory zones are testing grounds where V14.2.1 shines, at least according to testers in snow areas. Tesla watcher Sawyer Merritt shared a video of his first snowy drive on unplowed rural roads in New Hampshire, where FSD did great and erred on the side of caution. As per Merritt, FSD V14.2.1 was “extra cautious” but it performed well overall.
-->Sign recognition and freeway prowess
Sign recognition also seemed to show improvements with FSD V14.2.1. Longtime FSD tester Chuck Cook highlighted a clip from his upcoming first-impressions video, showcasing improved school zone behavior. “I think it read the signs better,” he observed, though in standard mode, it didn’t fully drop to 15 mph within the short timeframe. This nuance points to V14.2.1’s growing awareness of temporal rules, a step toward fewer false positives in dynamic environments.
FSD V14.2.1 also seems to excel in high-stress highway scenarios. Fellow FSD tester @BLKMDL3 posted a video of FSD V14.2.1 managing a multi-lane freeway closure due to a police chase-related accident. “Perfectly handles all lanes of the freeway merging into one,” the Tesla owner noted in his post on X.
FSD V14.2.1 was released on Thanksgiving, much to the pleasant surprise of Tesla owners. The update’s release notes are almost identical to the system’s previous iteration, save for one line item read, “Camera visibility can lead to increased attention monitoring sensitivity.”
News
Tesla FSD Supervised ride-alongs in Europe begin in Italy, France, and Germany
The program allows the public to hop in as a non-driving observer to witness FSD navigate urban streets firsthand.
Tesla has kicked off passenger ride-alongs for Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Italy, France and Germany. The program allows the public to hop in as a non-driving observer to witness FSD navigate urban streets firsthand.
The program, detailed on Tesla’s event pages, arrives ahead of a potential early 2026 Dutch regulatory approval that could unlock a potential EU-wide rollout for FSD.
Hands-Off Demos
Tesla’s ride-along invites participants to “ride along in the passenger seat to experience how it handles real-world traffic & the most stressful parts of daily driving, making the roads safer for all,” as per the company’s announcement on X through its official Tesla Europe & Middle East account.
Sign-ups via localized pages offer free slots through December, with Tesla teams piloting vehicles through city streets, roundabouts and highways.
“Be one of the first to experience Full Self-Driving (Supervised) from the passenger seat. Our team will take you along as a passenger and show you how Full Self-Driving (Supervised) works under real-world road conditions,” Tesla wrote. “Discover how it reacts to live traffic and masters the most stressful parts of driving to make the roads safer for you and others. Come join us to learn how we are moving closer to a fully autonomous future.”
-->Building trust towards an FSD Unsupervised rollout
Tesla’s FSD (Supervised) ride-alongs could be an effective tool to build trust and get regular car buyers and commuters used to the idea of vehicles driving themselves. By seating riders shotgun, Tesla could provide participants with a front row seat to the bleeding edge of consumer-grade driverless systems.
FSD (Supervised) has already been rolled out to several countries, such as the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and partially in China. So far, FSD (Supervised) has been received positively by drivers, as it really makes driving tasks and long trips significantly easier and more pleasant.
FSD is a key safety feature as well, which became all too evident when a Tesla driving on FSD was hit by what seemed to be a meteorite in Australia. The vehicle moved safely despite the impact, though the same would likely not be true had the car been driven manually.
Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) testing gains major ground in Spain
Tesla FSD V14.2.1 is earning rave reviews from users in diverse conditions
