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Tesla posts ‘first positive surprise of year’ as Morgan Stanley breaks down Q2

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Tesla posted what Morgan Stanley called its “first positive surprise of the year” as it beat delivery expectations for Q2 by around 6,000 units.

On Tuesday, Tesla reported its quarterly deliveries at 443,956, beating what Wall Street expected with its consensus figures at 438,019.

Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates

The beat was a big step in the right direction for Tesla, which has struggled to post any positive news so far in 2024 in terms of the grand scale. The automaker has struggled with growth, an expected bottleneck in its trek for EV sector domination as it finds itself in between two growth periods.

However, the Q2 numbers were labeled the “first positive surprise of the year” by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who said there were a few things to be happy about.

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Delivery Beat

Tesla beat delivery expectations, but there is still a long way to go before bulls can truly be pleased with what they see. Although they increased deliveries quarter-over-quarter, the Q2 figures are lower than what Tesla reported in Q2 last year.

In order to keep things flat in terms of the annual growth rate and report 0 percent instead of a loss, Tesla will need to grow deliveries in the second half of next year by roughly 6 percent.

Inventory Reduction

Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than it produced, which means its inventory is starting to thin out.

This is a good thing from a consumer perspective because, in theory, it means that Tesla cannot keep up with consumer interest. It basically means demand for its vehicles is healthy, and people are willing to buy an inventory vehicle.

Jonas writes:

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“Tesla delivered 33k units more than it produced in 2Q, driving a 7-day reduction in days’ supply of inventory (on a full calendar day basis) in the quarter. The 2Q inventory reduction substantially (but not fully) offsets the incresae in inventory seen in 1Q. At an ATP of $45k/unit this, by itself, drives a $1.5bn working capital inflow during the quarter — higher than the $600mm tailwind we have expected. Our 2Q forecast for $0.9bn FCF burn looks incrementally more conservative following this print.”

Energy Storage Deployments

Perhaps the biggest piece of information from the delivery report had nothing to do with cars in the slightest.

Tesla reported that it deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, its biggest in history by a wide margin.

This was a 132 percent increase from Q1 2024, which was previously its largest deployment. Tesla rolled out 4.053 GWh of energy during this three-month span.

Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024

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Jonas said the news was a “show stealer” and was nearly two-times what Morgan Stanley predicted for the calendar year.

The firm believes this could be something Tesla investors should pay attention to in the coming months:

“As Gen AI acceleration spurs a multigenerational increase in energy demand, electricity generation, and data center investment, we believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130bn) as the business uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”

Tesla Mojo

Jonas said that two weeks ago, clients were preparing for a rejection in ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package. Now, they’re asking about “positive catalysts for 2Q and beyond.”

Investors were also asked this interesting question:

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“Is this the same Tesla from early June?”

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake

The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker. 

Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

Institutional investors and TSLA

Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.

The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.

Recent insider sales

Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.

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Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.

@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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Tesla rolls out fresh Supercharger pricing strategy to more locations

Live Pricing aimed to resolve some of the shortcomings of the off-peak and on-peak system, aiming to keep prices low and base them on current utilization instead of a set time when prices change.

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tesla supercharger
Credit: Tesla

Tesla has rolled out a fresh Supercharger pricing strategy to more locations, as it confirmed it has added 550 additional sites in the United States to its “Live Pricing” strategy.

Live Pricing for Superchargers launched back in May, and was the company’s latest strategy to keep charging your EV cheap, affordable, and easy to understand.

Tesla has adjusted its pricing strategy at Superchargers several times over the past few years, with the most notable being the 2020 introduction of off-peak and on-peak Supercharging rates.

Live Pricing aimed to resolve some of the shortcomings of the off-peak and on-peak system, aiming to keep prices low and base them on current utilization instead of a set time when prices change.

Tesla explained the program when it launched:

“We are piloting on-peak and off-peak pricing based on live Supercharger utilization rather than estimations. The average price remains unchanged, but this live feedback loop improves accuracy. This corrects off-peak pricing during times of congestion, or on-peak pricing when Superchargers are plentiful. You’ll always see the price before your session begins, and prices do not change mid-session. A small-scale pilot is launching at 10 sites and will expand based on feedback and success.”

The initial rollout only included Superchargers in California, but it was not all of them, only a handful instead. Tesla was attempting to launch it in a very controlled manner by using a Pilot Program that would iron out all the early bugs and potential issues it might run into.

However, the company expanded the program by launching it at an additional 550 sites in California, New Jersey, New York, Florida, and Illinois:

The price you pay is locked in when you plug in, so if the Supercharger station you are charging at becomes more crowded and the program bumps up the rates because of high utilization rates, you will still receive the cheaper price that was enabled when you arrived.

@teslarati With a pedestrian in the crosswalk, Tesla Full Self-Driving shows off its courtesy. Human drivers? Not so much. #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ AMERICAN HEART – Maxwell Luke

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Tesla Robotaxi was just spotted in a new state for the first time

The company is still attempting to expand and has explicitly stated that it plans to offer rides in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida in the near future. However, a pair of Robotaxi mules, fitted with LiDAR equipment for ground truth validation, was spotted in a new region for the first time.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Robotaxi mules were spotted in a new state for the first time as the company plans to expand the ride-sharing service to new areas of the United States in the coming months.

Tesla is offering Robotaxi rides in Austin already, where nobody is present in the driver’s seat except for on freeway routes. In California, Tesla refers to its platform as a ride-hailing suite, and a “Safety Monitor” is present in the driver’s seat at all times, but the vehicle operates on Full Self-Driving.

The company is still attempting to expand and has explicitly stated that it plans to offer rides in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida in the near future. However, a pair of Robotaxi mules, fitted with LiDAR equipment for ground truth validation, was spotted in a new region for the first time.

Over the weekend, Tesla Robotaxi mules were spotted in Enola, Pennsylvania, just about ten minutes from downtown Harrisburg:

Enola is situated to the northwest of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s State Capitol. Interestingly, you’d expect Tesla to be testing these types of vehicles in other, more populated areas; Philadelphia is about two hours East, and Pittsburgh is about three hours west. State College is about an hour North of Enola.

Looking at the location of where the vehicles were spotted tells an interesting story, as Enola, located right outside of the State Capitol, could be a move to nudge legislators to consider looking at some of the laws that deal with driverless and autonomous vehicle operation.

Pennsylvania’s Act 130 of 2022 and subsequent guidelines permit the testing of driverless vehicles in the Commonwealth, but PennDOT requires a permit from Tesla or any other company that wants to operate a ride-hailing service in PA.

It’s also important to note that the cars could have simply been stopping through, as they were spotted at a Supercharger location along Interstate 81, which spans from Tennessee to New York.

It is not to say the vehicles are testing along the entire route, but likely a segment of it. The fact that they were spotted in Pennsylvania does bode well for Tesla’s expansion efforts moving forward.

@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario

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