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Tesla posts ‘first positive surprise of year’ as Morgan Stanley breaks down Q2

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Tesla posted what Morgan Stanley called its “first positive surprise of the year” as it beat delivery expectations for Q2 by around 6,000 units.

On Tuesday, Tesla reported its quarterly deliveries at 443,956, beating what Wall Street expected with its consensus figures at 438,019.

Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates

The beat was a big step in the right direction for Tesla, which has struggled to post any positive news so far in 2024 in terms of the grand scale. The automaker has struggled with growth, an expected bottleneck in its trek for EV sector domination as it finds itself in between two growth periods.

However, the Q2 numbers were labeled the “first positive surprise of the year” by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who said there were a few things to be happy about.

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Delivery Beat

Tesla beat delivery expectations, but there is still a long way to go before bulls can truly be pleased with what they see. Although they increased deliveries quarter-over-quarter, the Q2 figures are lower than what Tesla reported in Q2 last year.

In order to keep things flat in terms of the annual growth rate and report 0 percent instead of a loss, Tesla will need to grow deliveries in the second half of next year by roughly 6 percent.

Inventory Reduction

Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than it produced, which means its inventory is starting to thin out.

This is a good thing from a consumer perspective because, in theory, it means that Tesla cannot keep up with consumer interest. It basically means demand for its vehicles is healthy, and people are willing to buy an inventory vehicle.

Jonas writes:

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“Tesla delivered 33k units more than it produced in 2Q, driving a 7-day reduction in days’ supply of inventory (on a full calendar day basis) in the quarter. The 2Q inventory reduction substantially (but not fully) offsets the incresae in inventory seen in 1Q. At an ATP of $45k/unit this, by itself, drives a $1.5bn working capital inflow during the quarter — higher than the $600mm tailwind we have expected. Our 2Q forecast for $0.9bn FCF burn looks incrementally more conservative following this print.”

Energy Storage Deployments

Perhaps the biggest piece of information from the delivery report had nothing to do with cars in the slightest.

Tesla reported that it deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, its biggest in history by a wide margin.

This was a 132 percent increase from Q1 2024, which was previously its largest deployment. Tesla rolled out 4.053 GWh of energy during this three-month span.

Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024

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Jonas said the news was a “show stealer” and was nearly two-times what Morgan Stanley predicted for the calendar year.

The firm believes this could be something Tesla investors should pay attention to in the coming months:

“As Gen AI acceleration spurs a multigenerational increase in energy demand, electricity generation, and data center investment, we believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130bn) as the business uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”

Tesla Mojo

Jonas said that two weeks ago, clients were preparing for a rejection in ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package. Now, they’re asking about “positive catalysts for 2Q and beyond.”

Investors were also asked this interesting question:

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“Is this the same Tesla from early June?”

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla Giga Berlin makes big move amid strong sales and demand

“We currently have very good sales figures and have therefore revised our production plans for the third and fourth quarters upwards.”

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla is making a big move at its factory in Germany, known as Giga Berlin, as managers at the plant have indicated the company plans to increase its production rate for the remainder of the year.

Giga Berlin is responsible for manufacturing Model Y vehicles for several markets worldwide, including those outside of Europe. It was opened in March 2022, and it recently built its 500,000th Model Y in March and its 100,000th new Model Y just three weeks ago.

Due to some encouraging sales figures in the markets it provides vehicles for, Tesla said it is planning to increase production at the factory for the remainder of the year.

Andrè Thierig, plant manager at Giga Berlin, said to German news outlet DPA on Sunday that market data has encouraged a move to be made regarding the production at the factory:

“We currently have very good sales figures and have therefore revised our production plans for the third and fourth quarters upwards.”

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It is interesting to see this kind of narrative from Thierig, especially as data has shown Tesla has struggled in various markets, including Germany, this year.

Sales drops have been reported, but other markets are holding strong, especially those in Northern Europe, such as Norway, where the Model Y saw a nearly 39 percent increase in sales in August compared to the same month the previous year.

Tesla Model Y leads sales rush in Norway in August 2025

Gigafactory Berlin supplies vehicles for other markets, such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, which are strategically important to avoid tariffs. It also builds cars for the Middle East.

Thierig reiterated this point during the interview with DPA:

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“We supply well over 30 markets and definitely see a positive trend there.”

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Elon Musk

Tesla analyst says Musk stock buy should send this signal to investors

“With Musk’s (Tesla stock) purchase, combined with the upward momentum for delivery expectations and robotaxi rollout, we are becoming more bullish.”

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk purchased roughly $1 billion in Tesla shares on Friday, and analysts are now breaking down the move as the stock is headed upward.

One of them is William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer, who said in a new note to investors on Monday that Musk’s move should send a signal of confidence to stock buyers, especially considering the company’s numerous catalysts that currently exist.

Elon Musk just bought $1 billion in Tesla stock, his biggest purchase ever

Dorsheimer said in the note:

“With Musk’s (Tesla stock) purchase, combined with the upward momentum for delivery expectations and robotaxi rollout, we are becoming more bullish. This purchase is Musk’s first buy since 2020. To us, this sends a strong signal of confidence in the most important part of Tesla’s future business, robotaxi.”

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Musk putting an additional $1 billion back into the company in the form of more stock ownership is obviously a huge vote of confidence.

He knows more than anyone about the progress Tesla has made and is making on the Robotaxi platform, as well as the company’s ongoing efforts to solve vehicle autonomy. If he’s buying stock, it is more than likely a good sign.

Tesla has continued to expand its Robotaxi platform in a number of ways. The project has gotten bigger in terms of service area, vehicle fleet, and testing population. Tesla has also recently received a permit to test in Nevada, unlocking the potential to expand into a brand-new state for the company.

In the note, Dorsheimer also touched on Musk’s recent pay package, revealing that William Blair recently met with Tesla’s Board of Directors, who gave the firm some more color on the situation:

“We recently participated in a meeting with Tesla’s board of directors to discuss the details of Musk’s performance package. The board is confident of its position in the Delaware case and anticipates a verdict by end of year. It does not expect a similar situation to occur under new Texas jurisdiction. Musk has the board’s full support, and we expect he’ll get more than enough shareholder support for this to pass with flying colors.”

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Tesla stock is up over 6 percent so far today, trading at $421.50 at the time of publication.

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Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas dubs Tesla FSD a “game changer” after marathon drive

Jonas reported that FSD handled more than 99% of the miles.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Morgan Stanley’s analyst Adam Jonas shared a notable endorsement of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software after completing a 1,400-mile round trip from New York to Michigan in his Model Y. 

Jonas reported that FSD handled more than 99% of the miles, calling the system “a game changer” for long-distance driving.

Hands-free experience

Jonas drove his 2021 Tesla Model Y equipped with Hardware 3 and FSD Supervised v12.6.4, and he used the system nearly the entire trip. “Having your hands off the wheel and feet off the pedals for nearly 12 hours of driving is a real game changer that is hard to appreciate without experiencing it for yourself,” he noted.

He explained that outside of two heavy downpours, one on the Pennsylvania Turnpike and another in suburban Detroit, plus some light maneuvering in fast food parking lots, FSD handled the drive without any human intervention. “FSD made no mistakes or close calls that I recall. The system handles highways very safely and confidently. I cannot imagine buying another EV without FSD.”

Broader implications

Jonas added that he has used FSD consistently over the past 18 months, and the $8,000 he paid for the feature feels like a bargain considering the value. He also praised Tesla’s Supercharging network, which supported his trip without issue.

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Jonas has been one of Wall Street’s most closely followed voices on Tesla, and his comments add weight to the ongoing debate about the role of autonomy in the company’s future. His current price target for Tesla stock stands at $410. During Morgan Stanley’s 13th Annual Laguna Conference, he echoed similar experiences with Tesla’s software, emphasizing that FSD “probably drove well over 99% of the miles” on his recent trips.

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