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Tesla Model 3: what battery cost/kWh is needed for vehicle profitability?
As the Tesla Model 3 nears production and the first deliveries in July, the big question investors are asking is “Will Model 3 sink the company or take it to new heights?” The latest episode of Teslanomics reverse engineers new data around vehicle production costs and per kilowatt-hour battery costs, in an attempt to understand if and when Model 3 will be profitable.
Tesla shared in the 2017 Q1 investor call that it had improved margins on its vehicles to 27%. While the company disrupts not only the automotive industry but the energy storage and energy production industries, analysts have been scattershot in their estimations of Tesla’s current and future valuation.
Teslanomics took cost/kWh data from an anonymous source and combined it with assumptions for Model 3 battery size, to find the approximate cost/kWh required before Model 3 can be profitable. First, host Ben Sullins took the industry average that the Total Produced Cost of the vehicle should be around 40% of the sale price of the car. Electric cars are a bit different as batteries typically make up 50% of the total production cost of the vehicle.
Ben then created a model that calculates the % of the overall vehicle price that the battery represents. Based on discussions taking place across forums, it’s widely speculated that Model 3 will be offered with two different battery pack sizes – a 55 kWh and 70 kWh battery pack at a vehicle price of $35,000 and $42,000, respectively. Based on those assumptions, Ben was able to reduce the per kilowatt-hour battery cost until the total produced cost of the vehicle reached approximately 50%.
While this analysis is not water tight, nor was it intended to be, it does add a valuable data point to show that Model 3 can be profitable, especially once Tesla’s Gigafactory is in full production and battery costs reach $130 per kWh and below. Tesla is expected to announce details for Gigafactory 3, 4 and 5 by the end of this year.

News
Tesla China wholesale figures drop in February amid new Model Y transition
Tesla China’s February 2025 wholesale figures come amidst the company’s transition to the new Model Y, an update to its strongest seller in the country.

Tesla’s sales of China-made electric vehicles dropped sharply in February, with the U.S. automaker selling 30,688 units wholesale, a 51.47% decline from January’s 63,238 and a 49.16% slide from the 60,365 vehicles that were sold wholesale in February 2024.
Tesla China’s February 2025 results were reflected in data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
Tesla China’s 2025 sales:
Tesla China’s February 2025 wholesale figures come amidst the company’s transition to the new Model Y, an update to its strongest seller in the country. In the lead-up to the first deliveries of the new Model Y in late February, Tesla China likely cleared out its inventory of Model Y classic units, throttling sales of the all-electric crossover during the month.
Combined January-February 2025 sales for Tesla China currently stand at 93,926 units wholesale, as per a CNEV Post report. These represent a 28.74% decline from the 131,812 units sold wholesale in 2024’s first two months.
The new Model Y:
Tesla China introduced the new Model Y on January 10. At the time, Tesla China listed the revamped all-electric crossover’s first deliveries as sometime in March 2025. Deliveries of the new Model Y ultimately started on February 26, 2025.
The new Tesla Model Y offers a number of improvements compared to its predecessor, from an updated exterior that gives the vehicle a more aggressive look to an interior that addresses most of the complaints about the Model Y classic’s cabin. Upgrades include an updated suspension system and better sound isolation, which improve the new Model Y’s ride quality.
Previous reports:
A previous report from Bloomberg News back in January claimed that Tesla China will be pausing some of Giga Shanghai’s Model Y lines from January 22 to February 14 to optimize production equipment for the updated all-electric crossover. The publication also claimed that the facility’s Model 3 lines will be paused from January 26 to February 3 as well.
Considering that the Model Y is Tesla’s strongest seller in China, it would be interesting to see just how successful the vehicle will be in the country’s domestic market this year.
News
BYD executive VP Stella Li calls for Tesla team-up against ICE vehicles
“Our common enemy is the internal combustion engine car. We need to work together… to make the industry change,” the executive stated.

Stella Li, executive vice president of China’s leading electric vehicle maker BYD, noted that the Chinese automaker is willing to work with Tesla to battle combustion-powered cars.
The executive’s comments came as BYD and Tesla vie for supremacy in the global EV market, with both companies pushing aggressive innovation to capture consumer demand.
BYD exec’s comments:
Speaking to the Financial Times at a BYD showroom in London, Li noted that BYD would “work together” with Tesla to combat ICE vehicles. “Our common enemy is the internal combustion engine car. We need to work together… to make the industry change,” she stated.
She also stated that Beijing is “more open” to sharing innovations with foreign companies, even if there are rising trade tensions in Europe and the United States. “(The) Chinese government is more open, so maybe there is a lot of wrong perception here,” she noted.
China’s EV adoption:
Li emphasized the strength of China’s EV adoption as a model for the industry. She also expressed some confidence amidst the apparent slowdown in the global EV sector.
“Why are people still choosing the EV? Because it’s a better car, a smarter car… and it’s higher quality,” she stated.
Autonomous driving efforts:
BYD and Tesla’s efforts to make headway into the EV sector is highlighted by the two companies’ efforts to roll out a dedicated autonomous driving system to its domestic vehicles in China. Last month, BYD announced its “God’s Eye” self-driving system across most of its models in China at no additional cost.
Tesla, for its part, has pushed its first vision-based Full Self-Driving (FSD) features to the Chinese market. Early reviews of Tesla’s FSD features in China have been positive, with numerous users praising the system for its capability to traverse public roads without much issues.
News
Hyundai seeks to expand EV sales in Europe with new Türkiye plant
With a new EV plant in Türkiye, Hyundai is charging toward 100% zero-emission vehicle sales in Europe by 2035.

Hyundai seeks to expand its electric vehicle (EV) sales in Europe with a plant in Türkiye.
The South Korean automaker’s new Izmit plant in Türkiye is expected to strengthen Hyundai’s production capacity while reducing its carbon footprint. The new plant will produce electric models alongside the internal combustion engine (ICE) cars it is currently building.
Production at Hyundai’s Izmit plant will support the company’s need to meet the European market’s demand for sustainable automobiles. The Izmit plant will likely boost EV production in Europe, along with Hyundai’s manufacturing plant in the Czech Republic. It will also get Hyundai one step closer to offering only zero-tailpipe emission vehicles in Europe by 2035.
Hyundai Motor Türkiye, formerly known as Hyundai Assan Otomotiv Sanayi, has been the company’s longest-serving overseas production hub outside of South Korea. It has produced over 3 million vehicles in more than 28 years. Hyundai’s overseas hub has built a network of over 50 local suppliers in Türkiye. Over 55% of the Izmit plant’s vehicle components are domestically manufactured.
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