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Tesla is poised to deliver roughly 83,000 Model 3 cars in 2017
A new analysis by Ben Sullins of Teslanomics has Model 3 deliveries pegged at roughly 83,000 cars delivered in 2017. The bold prediction was derived from a series of statements made by Tesla CEO Elon Musk around Model 3 production ramp, guidance from Tesla’s First Quarter results, and historic data outlining production capacity for the Fremont factory.
To ground Teslanomic’s estimate in a bit of reality, Ben analyzed the production capacity of Tesla’s Fremont factory back when it was known as the NUMMI plant. NUMMI was a joint venture between Toyota and General Motors that had a total production capacity of approximately 500,000 vehicles per year. Admittedly, the factory built very different vehicles from Tesla that required internal combustion engines, transmissions and gas tanks. Ben used relevant data to corroborate Tesla’s initial estimates, before turning to automotive analyst Steve Funk for additional insight.
Funk unpacked NUMMI’s factory production capacity and found that Tesla’s goal to hit its intended production figure was a bit optimistic. The NUMMI factory produced its last vehicle on April 1, 2010 after which “NUMMI sold off equipment at an auction, with robots and tooling going to Toyota plants in Kentucky, Texas and Mississippi. NUMMI sold some equipment to Tesla for $15 million.” Tesla bought the majority of land that made up the factory and proceeded to revolutionize the auto industry by producing the all-electric Model S, followed by Tesla’s “best car ever”.
Knowing that Tesla is using the first of the two existing production lines to produce Model S and Model X, Funk estimates that Tesla would be able to produce 225,900 on the second production line, while taking into account throughput of the second line and the addition of a second shift.
Because Model 3 battery packs and other components are being produced offsite at the Sparks, Nevada Gigafactory 1 plant, completed parts must then be transported to the Fremont factory for final Model 3 assembly. That is a lot of moving parts and logistics Tesla will continue to refine this year within its own supply chain.
Ben plotted data points he obtained into a traditional S-curve and adjusted it down from Tesla’s extrapolated estimate of 100,000+ Model 3 deliveries in 2017. The end result? Tesla will deliver roughly 83,000 Model 3 sedans this year according to Teslanomics.
Elon Musk
Tesla regains Piper Sandler’s confidence with Robotaxi plans & Q1 Results
Piper Sandler says Tesla delivered the best-case scenario for bulls. $TSLA has catalysts ahead to silence the bears.

Tesla gained Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter’s confidence following its Q1 2025 earnings call. Piper Sandler reaffirmed its Overweight rating and $400 TSLA price target, signaling optimism for the company’s robotaxi and affordable vehicle launches expected this year. The firm’s stance reflects Tesla’s resilience amid market challenges.
Despite expectations of weak Q1 financials, Tesla’s stock edged up in after-hours trading, defying skepticism. Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter noted that the results met the hopes of Tesla supporters, particularly as the company held firm on its timelines. Potter emphasized that anticipation for robotaxi details and new vehicle launches should keep critics at bay, supporting the $400 target.
“In our preview last week, we predicted that (at best) Q1 would be a non-event. With the stock trading up slightly in the after-hours session, it appears our best-case scenario has materialized. Considering generally weak Q1 financials, we think this is the best result that TSLA bulls could’ve reasonably hoped for.
“In our view, the most important Q1 takeaway is this: Tesla didn’t hedge expectations re: launching Robotaxis or lower-priced vehicles in 1H25. With <2 months until the end of June, investors can look forward to some interesting catalysts in the weeks ahead. In our view, this alone should be enough to keep the bears at bay, at least until we have a better idea re: the details of Tesla’s new products, as well as the scale/scope of the Robotaxi launch,” wrote Potter.
Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, a longtime TSLA bull, echoed Potter’s optimism for Tesla. Ives raised his price target for Tesla stock from $315 to $350 with a BUY rating. His Tesla upgrade came after Elon Musk’s announcement during the Q1 earnings call that he would reduce his involvement with DOGE, signaling a sharper focus on Tesla.
Tesla’s steady Q1 performance and unwavering commitment to its 2025 roadmap, including the Robotaxi launch and lower-priced models, bolster investor confidence. Piper Sandler’s analysis underscores Tesla’s ability to navigate a competitive electric vehicle market while advancing its technological edge. The upcoming Robotaxi launch and affordable vehicle introductions are pivotal, with analysts expecting these initiatives to drive stock value through 2025.
As Tesla prepares for these milestones, its stock movement reflects market trust in Musk’s vision. With Piper Sandler and Wedbush reaffirming bullish outlooks, Tesla’s strategic moves will remain under close scrutiny, positioning the company to capitalize on its innovation pipeline in a dynamic industry landscape.
Elon Musk
Tesla says it has launched ride-hailing Robotaxi teaser to employees only
Tesla is using Full Self-Driving (Supervised) to court employees around in two areas.

Tesla announced earlier today that it has already launched an abbreviated version of what will eventually be launched as its Robotaxi fleet in both Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area. It is available to employees, Tesla said.
The automaker did not specify exactly how long it has been operating the fleet, which uses the company’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) suite, but it did indicate that it has completed over 1,500 trips, totaling 15,000 miles of driving.
FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San Francisco Bay Area.
We’ve completed over 1.5k trips & 15k miles of driving.
This service helps us develop & validate FSD networks, the mobile app, vehicle allocation, mission control &… pic.twitter.com/pYVfhi935W
— Tesla AI (@Tesla_AI) April 23, 2025
As seen in the video shared by the company, there is a human driver still responsible for keeping tabs on the car and its movements. It is not the version that Tesla plans to eventually roll out in June, which would be completely unsupervised.
Tesla said that using this service has helped develop and validate Full Self-Driving networks. It will also be used to create a mobile app that will facilitate ride requests, vehicle allocation, mission control, and remote assistance operations.
- Credit: Tesla
The app appears to be somewhat similar to the images Tesla shared of a mock-up version of the platform last year.
Right around this time in 2024, Tesla shared images of what would be the ride-hailing app for the company, enabling passengers to request a ride from a driverless robotaxi:
Tesla gives first look at Robotaxi-powered ride-hailing service app
We also know, according to Tesla App Updates on X, that Tesla will simply integrate this ride-hailing portion of the platform directly into the app the company already operates. There will be no dedicated app for requesting a ride:
🚨 Tesla will integrate Robotaxi ride-sharing directly into the app, there will be no specific and separate app for ride-hailing. https://t.co/bhq3aZcUcc pic.twitter.com/Rb8fFJdh2b
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 23, 2025
The company said in 2024 when teasing the app:
“We have been investing in the hardware and software ecosystems necessary to achieve vehicle autonomy and a ride-hailing service. We believe a scalable and profitable autonomy business can be realized through a vision-only architecture with end-to-end neural networks, trained on billions of miles of real-world data.”
Tesla said it still remains on track to launch a pilot version of the Robotaxi program in Austin in June, something the company has reiterated several times since the start of the new year.
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst sees brighter future after Elon Musk reduces DOGE work
Wedbush hikes TSLA’s price target after Musk says he’s cutting back on DOGE. Analyst Dan Ives calls it a “turning point” for Tesla’s story.

Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives sees a brighter future for the automaker now that Elon Musk plans to reduce his time with the DOGE team. After the company’s latest earnings call, the long-time TSLA bull raised Tesla’s price target from $315 to $350 with a BUY rating.
“Last night was a pivotal conference call for Musk to turn the corner from this dark chapter as 1Q numbers [ending] a disaster quarter in which deliveries were very soft and Tesla missed the Street on basically every metric.
“More important than numbers, this was the time [Elon] Musk could pivot, speak to shareholders/employees, and take a turn away from the DOGE/Trump White House and recommit as CEO of Tesla…and he did it loudly and clearly in a conference call that we view as a turning point in the Tesla story,” Ives said after Tesla’s earnings call.
Before Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings call, the Wedbush analyst said the company was at a crossroads. He listed six factors that might be affecting Tesla, which he believed the company should address. Number one on Ives’ list was Tesla’s ascension to a global political symbol associated with the Trump Administration and DOGE.
It must be noted that these are Ives’ opinions and do not apply to the entire public. Some groups separate Elon Musk and Tesla from President Trump and his administration.
During the recent TSLA earnings call, Elon Musk made the separation more apparent partly by announcing that he would significantly reduce his time with DOGE.
“And I think starting probably next month, May, my time allocation to Doge will drop significantly…But starting next month, I’ll be allocating far more of my time to Tesla and now that the major work of establishing the Department of Government Efficiency is done,” Musk said.
Musk also shared his stance on Trump’s auto tariffs, differentiating himself further from the U.S. President and the current administration.
“And I undoubtedly, I’m gonna get a lot of questions about tariffs. And I just wanna emphasize that the tariff decision is entirely up to the President of the United States. I will weigh in with my advice with the President, which he will listen to my advice. But then it’s up to him, of course, to make his decision.
“I’ve been on the record many times saying that I believe lower tariffs are generally a good idea for prosperity, but this decision is fundamentally up to the elected representative of the people being the President of the United States. So, you know, I’ll continue to advocate for lower tariffs rather than higher tariffs, but that’s all I can do,” Musk said.
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