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The Tesla Effect: Why EVs will take a big bite out of oil demand

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The newly defined “Tesla Effect” is producing remarkable consequences. Tesla electric vehicles (EVs) have changed the way that people all over the globe now think about transportation, the place of zero tailpipe emissions, and an accelerated agenda for sustainable energy. One “Tesla Effect” is that the International Energy Agency last month forecast that global gasoline demand has all but peaked because of more efficient cars and the spread of EVs.

Thank you, Tesla.

As a small Silicon Valley startup, Tesla Motors began with a line of luxury electric sports cars that could reliably produce more than 200 miles on a single charge. Due to the wide acclaim and demand it received for its cars, Tesla was able to repay a 2010 loan from the U.S. Department of Energy a full nine years early. Their manufacturing facility in California became the largest auto industry employer in California, and Tesla was soon spreading its mission around the globe. It has achieved success beyond any expectations — except that, perhaps, of CEO Elon Musk — and has prompted other major automakers to accelerate work on their own electric vehicles in order to maintain currency in the market.

And now, while EVs represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are predicted to soar in popularity around 2025. That’s when many governments around the globe, including Athens, Madrid, Mexico City, and Paris, have pledged to phase out diesel vehicles in a battle against pollution. These promises, known as “intended nationally determined contributions,” will have significant consequences of their own over the decade that will follow. By 2035, EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market.

“Anything that reduces the demand for transportation has an impact on the oil market,” Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals, and oils markets at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview in London. “The question is how big is it going to be and what’s the time frame.”

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Tesla Fremont factory Model S and Model X

Model S and Model X vehicles off the production line seen via aerial drone shot of Tesla factory

Electric cars are displacing about 50,000 barrels a day of demand now, according to the oil industry consultant, Wood Mackenzie, which promotes itself to potential customers as “embedded in the industry, with more than four decades building relationships, improving performance and keeping you ahead of the competition.” To placate nervous clients, Wood Mackenzie says that it does expect total oil demand to keep growing for decades, driven by shipping, trucking, aviation, and petrochemical industries. That’s more conservative than Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s forecast for EVs to displace about 8 million barrels a day of demand by 2035.

Tesla alone won’t be able to supply enough EVs if demand really takes off, Gelder said. Major automakers including Volkswagen AG and Ford Motor Co. will need to produce them on a larger scale. “At the moment they can’t, and changing manufacturing lines takes time.”

Gelder continued his argument by stating that regulation and government subsidies alone won’t be enough to spark a boom in EVs. Consumers, he insisted, will need to believe that EVs are preferred for a variety of reasons. “If there’s a technology revolution, so battery technology gets cheaper and EVs don’t need a subsidy, then it comes down to consumer preference. If the consumers like something, it’ll switch far faster.”

If the global response to Tesla is any indication, EVs are not only here to stay: they’ll be the preferred individual mode of transportation of the future.

Carolyn Fortuna is a writer and researcher with a Ph.D. in education from the University of Rhode Island. She brings a social justice perspective to environmental issues. Please follow me on Twitter and Facebook and Google+

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Tesla contract with Baltimore paused after city ‘decided to go in a different direction’

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Credit: Tesla

Last Summer, Tesla landed a $5 million contract with the City of Baltimore for a fleet of electric vehicles for the local government. However, Mayor Brandon Scott decided to pause that investment in September after the City “decided to go in a different direction.”

This is according to John Riggin, spokesman for the city’s Department of General Services. Riggin confirmed that the contract with Tesla has not been fulfilled, and Baltimore is going with other options for the time being:

“No Tesla units have been ordered, and none are in the City’s fleet.”

It now seems that the contract, which was set to be run until 2027, is not really a typical “contract” in the sense of the word. Riggin said the city is not obligated to spend the money for vehicles from Tesla, and that it is evaluating offerings from a variety of OEMs, including Ford and General Motors.

Tesla chosen over Ford for $5 million Baltimore City EV fleet

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Riggin said the value of the contract is more of a ceiling and not necessarily an obligation to spend the committed amount in full.

The contract has not been canceled officially, but City Comptroller Bill Henry said to the Baltimore Sun that it has gone back to purchasing Mustang Mach-Es from Ford, the vehicle that was snubbed for Teslas back in July when things were initially decided.

The timing of the pause is interesting, and it does not seem to have anything to do with CEO Elon Musk’s direct involvement with the Trump administration, although the EV maker’s frontman was already vocalizing his distaste for the Democratic White House run by the Biden Administration.

Baltimore has a citywide goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2045, and has used EVs in its fleet for several years to reach that goal. It plans to electrify the city vehicle fleet by 2030.

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Tesla at risk of 95% crash, claims billionaire hedge fund manager

Tesla stock has been extremely volatile as of late amidst souring sentiments over CEO Elon Musk’s political leanings.

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Credit: Tesla Singapore/X

Christer Gardell, a Swedish billionaire and hedge fund manager, issued a stark warning about Tesla stock and what he believes are bubbles in the stock market. The billionaire’s insights about Tesla were shared during an interview with EFN

Tesla stock has been extremely volatile as of late amidst controversies and souring sentiments over CEO Elon Musk’s increasingly political leanings.

Alleged Tesla (TSLA) risks

Gardell did not mince words about Tesla, stating that the electric vehicle maker’s valuation could drop as much as 95% due to the “circus” surrounding its CEO. 

“Tesla, especially now with the whole Musk circus going on everywhere, is probably the most expensive stock on the global stock exchanges right now. It could go down 95% – and maybe it should go down 95%,” he said in the interview

The Swedish billionaire sees Tesla as fundamentally a car company. Thus, he does not understand why the market has given the EV maker such a high value. For context, the Tesla story has been changing in recent years, with the company growing its energy business and delving into AI and robotics.

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Gardell Slams “Eternal Bubble

Gardell believes the EV maker has become a poster child of sorts of a market that has become speculative, where share prices do not reflect true valuations anymore, as noted in a CarUp report. The hedge fund manager noted that in Tesla’s case, this “eternal bubble” should have burst long ago.

“I have commented that it should have burst over the past five years, but it still hasn’t. The valuation is incomprehensible,” he explained. The hedge fund manager, however, noted that once the crash happens, the decline would be dramatic.

“It’s always hard to say when. It could happen in a month, six months, a year, three years, or five years – it’s impossible to answer. Because there’s so much money dominating the stock market now, and they don’t care about the value of the shares, they speculate on price movements,” he said.

U.S. Stocks Overpriced, Europe Offers Value

Looking beyond Tesla, Gardell flagged broader risks in the U.S. stock market, which he described as significantly overvalued. “American stocks have received very large flows recently. If you look at the American stock market, it is very expensive, both from a purely absolute perspective and from a historical perspective,” he stated.

In contrast, Gardell touted European stocks as a more attractive option for investors. “And the difference between American stocks and European stocks has never been greater. Normally, European stocks have had a discount of 20%, now it is 40%. And that is too high,” he noted.

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Tesla store shooting incident under investigation

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Oregon police are investigating a shooting incident involving a Tesla store.

A Tesla store in Tigard, a city southwest of Portland, was vandalized around 2:00 am on Thursday, March 6.

“The damage was discovered by employees who arrived for work this morning (3/6/25) at the dealership on SW Cascade Avenue. Investigators believe at least 7 shots were fired, damaging 3 cars and shattering windows. One bullet went through an office wall and into a computer monitor. Fortunately, this happened overnight when the property was unoccupied,” stated a Tigard Police report.

Crime scene technicians and investigators are gathering physical and video evidence of the shooting. Tigard Police did not officially announce a motivation for the shooting at the Tesla store. However, they acknowledge that a few Tesla locations have been targeted across Oregon and the nation.

Tesla locations across the United States and abroad have been experiencing attacks recently. Most of the company’s locations experience arson attacks. For instance, in France, around a dozen Tesla vehicles were reportedly torched in a suburb near Toulouse. Meanwhile, in Massachusetts, a few Tesla Superchargers were allegedly set on fire near a shopping center. Tesla protests have also started in various locations.

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Police have not provided an official reason or motivation for all the arson attacks and the Oregon shooting because they are still under investigation. However, Elon Musk is definitely at the root of the matter.

Elon Musk has recently found himself the target of plenty of ire in the United States and Europe. Tesla is taking the brunt of all the anger pointed toward Musk.

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