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Tesla (TSLA) boosted by Morgan Stanley, citing positive Model 3 outlook and “supportive political environment”

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Tesla (TSLA) investors woke up  to a healthy dose of green this morning after Morgan Stanley upgraded the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker’s rating to an overweight, citing a “surprisingly supportive political environment”, improved outlook for Model 3 launch and less competition. Analysts from Morgan Stanley raised Tesla’s price target to $305 from $242, and set a higher earnings prediction for fiscal year 2018.

The upgrade follows the recent announcement that Tesla’s massive Gigafactory facility in Sparks, Nevada will be expanding production to motors and drive units for the company’s highly anticipated mass market Model 3 sedan. Morgan Stanley analysts see a “soft” launch at the end of this year, followed by a significant production volume ramp in 2018.

Morgan Stanley reports that Tesla has a lead in the self-driving space and reduced risk from Google after the technology giant shifted focus away from its self-driving car project.

Also noted by Morgan Stanley is Tesla’s ties with a “surprisingly supportive political environment”. This is in large part a reference to CEO Elon Musk’s recent meetings with President-elect Donald Trump, reportedly to discuss the topic of American job creation. Trump’s Strategic and Policy Forum (SPF) announced that it has included Musk, Uber CEO Travis Kalanick, and PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi as members of the advisory council.

Tesla stock was up 4% in premarket trading before leveling down to 3%. The stock is currently trading at $245.56 (+3.02%).

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) releases first quarter 2025 earnings results

Tesla’s quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments stand at a healthy $37 billion.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings were released in an Update Letter, which was posted on the company’s Investor Relations website after markets closed today, April 22, 2025.

Tesla Q1 2025 Deliveries

Tesla’s first quarter vehicle deliveries fell short of expectations, with the EV maker delivering a total of 336,681 vehicles, comprised of 323,800 Model 3/Y and 12,881 other models, worldwide. Vehicle production was at 362,615 units in the first quarter, comprised of 345,454 Model 3/Y and 17,161 other models.

Tesla Energy continued its momentum in Q1 2025, with the division deploying 10.4 GWh of energy storage products during the quarter.

What Wall Street Expects

As noted in a Forbes report, expectations are high that Tesla will report a gain of $0.35 per share on $21.85 billion in revenue, though whisper numbers suggest that the company will only post a gain of $0.31 per share. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to see an EPS of $0.41 per share on revenues of $21.27 billion, as noted in an Investors’ Business Daily report.

Tesla’s Q1 2025 Results In a Nutshell

Following are highlights of Tesla’s Q1 2025 update Letter:

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  • Total Revenues: $19.3 billion
  • Total automotive revenues: $13.967 billion
  • Total GAAP gross margin: 16.3%
  • Gross Profit: $3.15 billion
  • EPS non-GAAP: $0.27 per share
  • Free cash flow: $664 million

Key Updates: 

Tesla’s total revenue decreased 9% YoY to $19.3 billion YoY. This was due to a decline in vehicle deliveries, in part due to the new Model Y changeover and reduced vehicle average selling price (ASP), among other factors.

Tesla is still profitable, though operating income decreased 66% YoY to $0.4 billion. This also resulted in a a 2.1% operating margin. Tesla’s profitability in the first quarter was affected by reduced vehicle ASP, a decline in vehicle deliveries, and an increase in operating expenses driven by AI and other R&D projects partially offset by a decrease in SG&A, among other factors.

Tesla’s quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments stand at a healthy $37 billion. The sequential increase of $0.4 billion was primarily the result of positive free cash flow of $0.7 billion.

Below is Tesla’s first quarter 2025 Update Letter.

TSLA-Q1-2025-Update by Simon Alvarez

This article is being updated.

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Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2025 earnings: What to expect

Tesla stock reached as high as $488.54 per share in 2024, though it is trading at around $240 per share as of writing.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to release its first quarter 2025 results after markets close today, April 22, 2025.

At 4:30 p.m. Central Time / 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time, executives such as CEO Elon Musk will also be holding a Company Update and the Q1 2025 earnings call.

Tesla Q1 Deliveries and Production

Tesla missed estimates in the first quarter, with the company delivering a total of 336,681 vehicles worldwide. A total of 362,615 vehicles were also produced during this period.

While the delivery results of Tesla’s electric vehicle business were subpar in Q1 2025, the company’s energy division exhibited strong performance during the quarter, deploying a total of 10.4 GWh worth of energy storage products.

Earnings Estimates

As noted in a Forbes report, expectations are high that Tesla will report a gain of $0.35/share on $21.85 billion in revenue. Whisper numbers, however, reportedly suggest that the electric vehicle maker will only post a gain of $0.31 per share.

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Analysts polled by FactSet, however, expect Tesla to see an EPS of $0.41 per share on revenues of $21.27 billion, as noted in an Investors’ Business Daily report.

Tesla Stock So Far

Tesla stock reached as high as $488.54 per share in 2024, though it is trading at around $240 per share as of writing. Tesla stock has been naturally volatile, however, so it is prone to notable moves depending on its Q1 earnings.

If the numbers are good, Tesla stock could easily gap up, but if they are disappointing, it would not be surprising if TSLA shares gap down.

FSD, New Vehicle Updates

Tesla is expected to launch a dedicated robotaxi service this June in Austin, Texas. The company has also been hinting at more affordable models that will be launched in the first half of 2025. Expectations are high that CEO Elon Musk will share some updates on these projects, particularly the rollout of Tesla’s FSD Unsupervised system.

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Tesla sits at a ‘crossroads,’ Wedbush says by listing six negatives

Wedbush is still bullish on Tesla, but says Elon Musk needs to make a choice between DOGE and the car company.

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Credit: Tesla

According to Wedbush, Tesla is sitting at a “crossroads” as it nears its Q1 2025 Earnings Call on Tuesday.

Although the company’s Earnings Calls have been primarily focused on the financials and accomplishments of the past quarter, Tesla is approaching this one differently.

Tesla has even said that this Earnings Call will feature a “company update,” and as most believe it will detail plans for future models and production timelines, others have different expectations and beliefs over what could be said.

Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25

Wedbush’s Dan Ives believes Tesla is at a crossroads and outlined his six biggest concerns for the company since CEO Elon Musk took on a role within the White House at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE):

  1. Tesla has now unfortunately become a political symbol globally of the Trump Administration/DOGE
  2. Tesla’s stock has been crushed since Trump stepped back into the White House
  3. Brand damage to Musk/Tesla resulted in a terrible 1Q delivery number, with much lower 2025 deliveries on the horizon
  4. Protests and violence against Tesla dealerships/owners have erupted around the globe
  5. 25% auto tariffs have been enacted, delaying future lower-cost models for Tesla, even though Musk is vocally against the tariffs for obvious reasons
  6. Potentially 15%-20% permanent demand destruction for future Tesla buyers due to the brand damage Musk has created with DOGE

Ives has held onto the idea that Musk’s involvement has made Tesla synonymous with the Trump administration, but that only seems to be true for those who share ideologies that oppose what the White House is doing.

Others are able to differentiate between the two, noting that Tesla is not a Trump organization, and vice versa.

Of course, there are negative sides to Musk splitting his time between the two and having ties to the President. Politically, it is hard to appease everyone.

Despite this, Wedbush’s Ives said the firm still remains bullish on Tesla:

“So why stay bullish? It’s a great question. We believe Tesla along with Nvidia are two of the most disruptive technology companies on the globe over the coming years. The unparalleled innovation, engineering scale, autonomous roadmap, and robotics future will unleash massive valuation upside over the coming years in our view. BUT….Musk needs to leave the government, take a major step back on DOGE, and get back to being CEO of Tesla full-time. Tesla is Musk and Musk is Tesla….and anyone that thinks the brand damage Musk has inflicted is not a real thing….spend some time speaking to car buyers in the US, Europe, and Asia…you will think differently after those discussions.”

Ives said that Musk needs to lay out the timing and rollout plans for the unsupervised Full Self-Driving and for the affordable vehicle platform, which was set for release in the first half of the year.

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