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IER Claims Tesla Powerwall Has 38 Year Payback Time

The Institute for Energy Research reports the payback time for a Tesla PowerWall is 38 years. Tesla disagrees, setting off a war of words.

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Elon Musk Introduces Tesla PowerWall

Elon Musk Introduces Tesla PowerWall

The Institute for Energy Research (IER) issued a report on January 5 claiming the payback on a Tesla PowerWall is 38 years. The IER is no stranger to those involved in energy policy considerations. The CEO is Robert Bradley, a former director of policy analysis at Enron, where he once wrote speeches for Ken Lay. Lay was the man who many regarded as the person that led the corruption scandal that would ultimately bring down Enron. In a 2003 book, Bradley wrote that carbon dioxide “is not a pollutant but a building block of a living and vibrant biosphere.” That is correct, as far as it goes.

Carbon is indeed a basic building block of all life on Earth. It is flooding the atmosphere with excess carbon that has been trapped in the form of fossil fuels for millions of years that is the problem. Elon Musk made this point with precision when he addressed the Sorbonne in Paris in December. IER is also partially funded by the Koch Brothers reports AutoBlog, citing a story in Mother Jones.

One does not attack Tesla without expecting a vigorous response. The IER report provoked this response from Tesla:

“The report done by the Institute for Energy Research is elementary, at best, and completely misses the value of the Powerwall. For one, IER assumes a fabricated rate structure without citing any source. Transparently, if a consumer were to have a rate structure defined in the article, then the payback calculation is indeed correct.

“However, very few people with this sort of rate structure are interested in Powerwall for financial reasons. They are interested for energy independence, backup security, environmental reasons and tech early adoption, none of which are taken into account.”

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Tesla suggested a more accurate way to calculate the payback time for a Powerwall is to focus on regions that have renewable energy policies like feed-in tariffs. That way “the consumer can utilize a Powerwall to consume more of their solar generation and the payback is less than 10 years, while providing the non-economic benefits as well.”

The IER is having none of it, accusing Engadget who first reported on the story of “the most fawning media treatment of any public figure since Pravda covered Stalin.” Which leaves people with a choice — whether to believe a former shill for Ken Lay or the professionally trained engineers who work for Tesla. It shouldn’t be a hard choice to make.

Photo credit: Tesla  Motors

Elon Musk

Tesla Energy shines with substantial YoY growth in deployments

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Credit: Tesla Megapack

Tesla Energy shined in what was a weak delivery report for the first quarter, as the company’s frequently-forgotten battery storage products performed extraordinarily well.

Tesla reported its Q1 production, delivery, and deployment figures for the first quarter of the year, and while many were less-than-excited about the automotive side, the Energy division performed well with 10.4 GWh of energy storage products deployed during the first quarter.

This was a 156 percent increase year-over-year and the company’s second-best quarter in terms of energy deployments to date. Only Q4 2024 was better, as 11 GWh was recorded.

Tesla Energy is frequently forgotten and not talked about enough. The company has continued to deploy massive energy storage projects across the globe, and as it recorded 31.5 GWh of deployments last year, 2025 is already looking as if it will be a record-setting year if it continues at this pace.

Tesla Megapacks to back one of Europe’s largest energy storage sites

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Although Energy performed well, many investors are privy to that of the automotive division’s performance, which is where some concern lies. Tesla had a weak quarter for deliveries, missing Wall Street estimates by a considerable margin.

There are two very likely reasons as to why this happened: the first is Tesla’s switchover to the new Model Y at its production facilities across the globe. Tesla said it lost “several weeks” of production due to the updating of manufacturing lines as it rolled out a new version of its all-electric crossover.

Secondly, Tesla could be facing some pressure from pushback against the brand, which is what many analysts will say. Despite the publicity of attacks on Tesla drivers and their vehicles, as well as the company’s showrooms, it would be safe to assume that we will have a better picture painted of what the issue is in Q2 after the company reports numbers in July.

New Tesla Model Y was a best-seller in China in March 2025

If Tesla is still struggling with lackluster delivery figures in Q2 after the Model Y is ramped and deliveries are more predictable and consistent, we could see where the argument for brand damage is legitimate. However, we are more prone to believe the Model Y, which accounts for most of Tesla’s sales, and its production ramp is likely the cause for what happened in Q1.

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In what was a relatively bleak quarter, Tesla Energy still shines as the bright spot for the quarter.

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Energy

Tesla lands in Texas for latest Megapack production facility

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has chosen the location of its latest manufacturing project, a facility that will churn out the Megapack, a large-scale energy storage system for solar energy projects. It has chosen Waller County, Texas, as the location of the new plant, according to a Commissioners Court meeting that occurred on Wednesday, March 5.

Around midday, members of the Waller County Commissioners Court approved a tax abatement agreement that will bring Tesla to its area, along with an estimated 1,500 jobs. The plant will be located at the Empire West Industrial Park in the Brookshire part of town.

Brookshire also plans to consider a tax abatement for Tesla at its meeting next Thursday.

The project will see a one million square-foot building make way for Tesla to build Megapack battery storage units, according to Covering Katy News, which first reported on the company’s intention to build a plant for its energy product.

CEO Elon Musk confirmed on the company’s Q4 2024 Earnings Call in late January that it had officially started building its third Megapack plant, but did not disclose any location:

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“So, we have our second factory, which is in Shanghai, that’s starting operation, and we’re building a third factory. So, we’re trying to ramp output of the stationary battery storage as quickly as possible.”

Tesla plans third Megafactory after breaking energy records in 2024

The Megapack has been a high-demand item as more energy storage projects have started developing. Across the globe, regions are looking for ways to avert the loss of power in the event of a natural disaster or simple power outage.

This is where Megapack comes in, as it stores energy and keeps the lights on when the main grid is unable to provide electricity.

Vince Yokom of the Waller County Economic Development Partnership, commented on Tesla’s planned Megapack facility:

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“I want to thank Tesla for investing in Waller County and Brookshire. This will be a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility for their Megapack product. It is a powerful battery unit that provides energy storage and support to help stabilize the grid and prevent outages.”

Tesla has had a lease on the building where it will manufacture the Megapacks since October 2021. However, it was occupied by a third-party logistics company that handled the company’s car parts.

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Tesla Energy had a blockbuster 2024

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Energy has become the undisputed dark horse of the electric vehicle maker. This was highlighted by Tesla Energy’s growing role in the company’s overall operations in the past quarters. 

And as per Tesla’s year-end milestone posts on X, Tesla Energy had a blockbuster 2024.

Tesla Energy’s 2024 milestones:

  • As per Tesla on its official social media account on X, the company has hit over 800,000 Powerwalls installed worldwide. 
  • From this number, over 100,000 Powerwall batteries have been enrolled in virtual power plant (VPP) programs.
  • The Powerwall 3 has officially been launched in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.K., Germany, Italy, Australia, and New Zealand.
  • The Tesla Megapack hit over 22 GWh in operation across more than 60 countries across the globe.
  • The Lathrop Megafactory, which produces the Megapack, has been ramped to 40 GWh per year. 
  • The Lathrop Megafactory has also produced its 10,000th Megapack battery.
  • The Shanghai Megafactory was completed in just seven months, and it is ready to start Megapack production in Q1 2025.

Powerwall owners’ 2024 impact:

  • As per Tesla Energy, Powerwall owners generated a total of 4.5 TWh of solar energy globally in 2024. This was equivalent to powering a Model 3 for more than 17 billion miles.
  • A total of 1.1 TWh of energy was stored in Powerwalls in 2024. This protected homes from over 5.8 million outages during the year.
  • Tesla’s Storm Watch feature for Powerwall batteries covered 2.8 million severe weather events over the year.
  • Powerwall owners saw collective savings of over $800 million on utility bills.
  • Virtual Power Plants contributed over 2.2 GWh of power to the grid. This reduced the need for 2,200 metric tons of fossil fuel peaker plant emissions.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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