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Tesla battery degradation analysis reveals how long a battery might last

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Teslanomics by Ben Sullins looks to answer the age-old question asked by likely every Tesla owner and would-be buyer of the luxury electric car: how long will my Tesla battery last?

By analyzing battery degradation data that’s been crowdsourced by Tesla owners worldwide – first compiled by Maarten Steinbuch in a Google sheet – Teslanomics aims to help owners better visualize the expected range loss in their Tesla over time. Maarten first tapped into a Dutch Belgium Tesla forum to initiate data gathering which required Model S owners to fully drain their Tesla battery to a near-zero state of charge before charging it back to a 100% capacity. The process theoretically will provide the most accuracy in terms of determining a battery’s true capacity. This is contrary to early beliefs that a battery undergoes a “training effect” if not fully depleted and charged to full capacity. Tesla owners that consistently charged to a state of charge between 50% to 75% often reported seeing less overall battery range, presumably because the charge state within each cylindrical lithium ion cell that makes up the overall battery pack is “out of balance”.

Ben’s analysis of battery state of charge data by vehicle age, number of battery charges and number of miles/km driven, can be visualized through an interactive chart which we provided below. The data can also be further broken down by region.

It’s worth noting that battery performance and longevity being highlighted by Teslanomics is based on Tesla’s 18650 lithium ion battery cell that’s currently being used in Model S and Model X vehicles. On the other hand, Tesla’s massive Gigafactory facility in Nevada began mass production of its newest high performance and high energy density 2170 cell early this year. The 2170 battery cells are currently being used in Tesla’s Powerpack 2 and Powerwall 2 energy storage systems, and will become the foundation for the upcoming Model 3.

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Tesla believes that the 2170 is perfect for electric vehicles, striking the ideal balance between cost, density, weight and performance. As such, the company has plans to eventually transition its entire fleet of vehicles to the newest battery cell. If history is any indicator, Tesla is unlikely to provide more than 2 weeks notice of the change to minimize any unnecessary impacts to sales of existing vehicles.

Though the battery degradation data along with the accompanying analysis by Teslanomics is based only on a small overall sample set of Tesla owners, the results do align with real world data from a high mileage Model S that registered over 200k mi (322k km). Electric mobility company Tesloop reported a 6% loss in range after 200k miles of driving.

Looking farther ahead to the 2170 cell-based vehicles, we expect battery degradation to become even more negligible, especially as Tesla continues to implement learnings captured through billions of miles driven by current vehicles equipped with the 18650 packs.

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I'm passionate about clean technology, sustainability and life. I've worked in manufacturing, IT, project management and environmental...and enjoy unpacking complex topics in layman's terms. TSLA investor. Find more of my words on my website or follow me on Twitter for all the latest. Tesla Referral link: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Energy

Tesla lands in Texas for latest Megapack production facility

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has chosen the location of its latest manufacturing project, a facility that will churn out the Megapack, a large-scale energy storage system for solar energy projects. It has chosen Waller County, Texas, as the location of the new plant, according to a Commissioners Court meeting that occurred on Wednesday, March 5.

Around midday, members of the Waller County Commissioners Court approved a tax abatement agreement that will bring Tesla to its area, along with an estimated 1,500 jobs. The plant will be located at the Empire West Industrial Park in the Brookshire part of town.

Brookshire also plans to consider a tax abatement for Tesla at its meeting next Thursday.

The project will see a one million square-foot building make way for Tesla to build Megapack battery storage units, according to Covering Katy News, which first reported on the company’s intention to build a plant for its energy product.

CEO Elon Musk confirmed on the company’s Q4 2024 Earnings Call in late January that it had officially started building its third Megapack plant, but did not disclose any location:

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“So, we have our second factory, which is in Shanghai, that’s starting operation, and we’re building a third factory. So, we’re trying to ramp output of the stationary battery storage as quickly as possible.”

Tesla plans third Megafactory after breaking energy records in 2024

The Megapack has been a high-demand item as more energy storage projects have started developing. Across the globe, regions are looking for ways to avert the loss of power in the event of a natural disaster or simple power outage.

This is where Megapack comes in, as it stores energy and keeps the lights on when the main grid is unable to provide electricity.

Vince Yokom of the Waller County Economic Development Partnership, commented on Tesla’s planned Megapack facility:

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“I want to thank Tesla for investing in Waller County and Brookshire. This will be a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility for their Megapack product. It is a powerful battery unit that provides energy storage and support to help stabilize the grid and prevent outages.”

Tesla has had a lease on the building where it will manufacture the Megapacks since October 2021. However, it was occupied by a third-party logistics company that handled the company’s car parts.

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Tesla Energy had a blockbuster 2024

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Energy has become the undisputed dark horse of the electric vehicle maker. This was highlighted by Tesla Energy’s growing role in the company’s overall operations in the past quarters. 

And as per Tesla’s year-end milestone posts on X, Tesla Energy had a blockbuster 2024.

Tesla Energy’s 2024 milestones:

  • As per Tesla on its official social media account on X, the company has hit over 800,000 Powerwalls installed worldwide. 
  • From this number, over 100,000 Powerwall batteries have been enrolled in virtual power plant (VPP) programs.
  • The Powerwall 3 has officially been launched in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.K., Germany, Italy, Australia, and New Zealand.
  • The Tesla Megapack hit over 22 GWh in operation across more than 60 countries across the globe.
  • The Lathrop Megafactory, which produces the Megapack, has been ramped to 40 GWh per year. 
  • The Lathrop Megafactory has also produced its 10,000th Megapack battery.
  • The Shanghai Megafactory was completed in just seven months, and it is ready to start Megapack production in Q1 2025.

Powerwall owners’ 2024 impact:

  • As per Tesla Energy, Powerwall owners generated a total of 4.5 TWh of solar energy globally in 2024. This was equivalent to powering a Model 3 for more than 17 billion miles.
  • A total of 1.1 TWh of energy was stored in Powerwalls in 2024. This protected homes from over 5.8 million outages during the year.
  • Tesla’s Storm Watch feature for Powerwall batteries covered 2.8 million severe weather events over the year.
  • Powerwall owners saw collective savings of over $800 million on utility bills.
  • Virtual Power Plants contributed over 2.2 GWh of power to the grid. This reduced the need for 2,200 metric tons of fossil fuel peaker plant emissions.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Utah’s rPlus Energies breaks ground on Tesla Megapack battery system

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Credit: Tesla

Utah-based rPlus Energies recently held the groundbreaking ceremony for the Green River Energy Center, a 400 MW solar PV and 400 MW/1,600 MWh battery storage project in Eastern Utah. Tesla Megapacks will be used as the upcoming facility’s battery storage solution. 

At 400 MW/1,600 MWh, the Green River Energy Center is expected to become one of the largest solar-plus-storage projects under development in the United States. Once operational, the facility would supply power to PacifiCorp under a power purchase agreement, as noted in a press release

Utah Gov. Spencer Cox shared his excitement for the project during the Green River Energy Center’s groundbreaking event. As per the Utah Governor, the solar and battery storage system represents a notable step forward for the state’s sustainable energy efforts. 

“This project is being built in rural Utah, by rural Utahns, and for all of Utah. When rural Utah thrives, the entire state prospers. Today, we’re not just breaking ground—we’re building a future of affordable, abundant energy in Utah,” the official noted. 

The Green River Energy Center secured over $1 billion in construction debt financing earlier this year. The facility is also expected to create about 500 jobs, many of which will be filled by local workers. With this in mind, the solar and battery farm would likely prove to be a boost to Emery County’s economy, enhancing tax revenue, strengthening public services, and offering long-term employment opportunities for the area’s residents. 

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Sundt Construction will serve as the project’s contractor, EliTe Solar will supply the solar modules, and Tesla will provide the battery storage system for the project. Luigi Resta, President and CEO of rPlus Energies, noted that the Green River Energy Center is special because of the entities that have worked together to make the facility a reality. 

“It’s the partners that make this project special, that have made this monumental project possible. From our equipment providers to the onsite talent, and the support of the local and regional community, we owe this project’s success to each of you,” he stated. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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