News
Do autonomous cars make us worse drivers?
Autonomous cars are coming. So is the first fatality associated with them. Statistically, that milestone should occur in the next 18 months. What will happen then?
On May 31, 2009, an Airbus 330 on its way from Rio de Janiero to Paris plunged from an altitude of 35,000 feet into the Atlantic, killing all 228 people on board. Just prior to the crash, the airplane was operating in autopilot mode. A reconstruction of the disaster revealed input from several sensors had been compromised by ice that caused them to give false readings. Updated sensors that were less susceptible to ice accumulation were waiting to be installed after the plane arrived in Paris.
Because of the false readings the autopilot system disengaged returning control to the pilots however the senior pilot was sleeping at the time. The two junior pilots were not as highly trained in high altitude flight as they might have been, partly because the use of machines to control aircraft under those conditions was the norm.
Faced with the unexpected, the pilots behaved poorly. At one point they are heard to say on the cockpit recorder, “We completely lost control of the airplane, and we don’t understand anything! We tried everything!” While they tried to rouse the sleeping senior pilot, the nose of the aircraft climbed until a stall was induced. Stall is the point at which the wings become barn doors instead of airfoils. The Airbus 330 dropped from the sky like a rock.
In his excellent story about the crash published on Vanity Fair, William Langewiesche offered this conclusion: “Automation has made it more and more unlikely that ordinary airline pilots will ever have to face a raw crisis in flight—but also more and more unlikely that they will be able to cope with such a crisis if one arises.”
The Tesla community has seen similar instances lately. The driver in Salt Lake City who accidentally activated Summon, causing his car to drive into the back of a truck. The woman on a freeway in California who rear ended a car that suddenly slowed in front of her. The man in Europe who crashed into the back of a van that had stalled in the high speed lane of a highway. He at least had the courage to admit his error. “Yes, I could have reacted sooner, but when the car slows down correctly 1,000 times, you trust it to do it the next time to. My bad.”
After each of these incidents, the tendency has been for many to defend the machine and blame the human. But in a recent article for The Guardian, author Martin Robbins says, “Combine an autopilot with a good driver, and you get an autopilot with, if not a bad driver, at least not such a good one.” He says that statistically, the time when a car operating in autonomous mode causes a fatality is rapidly approaching.
Tesla Model S owner crashes into the back of a stalled van
On average, a person is killed in a traffic accident in the United States once every 100 million miles. Elon Musk says Tesla’s Autopilot is half as likely to be involved in a collision as a human driver. That would suggest that somewhere around the 200 million mile mark someone will die as a result of an automobile driven by a machine.
Tesla has already passed the 100 million mile mark for cars driving in Autopilot mode and continues to log 2.6 million miles driven per day. Statistically speaking, the time when a self driving car kills somebody is rapidly approaching. And since most autonomous cars on the road are Teslas, the odds are excellent it will be a Tesla that is involved in that first fatality.
What will happen then? Robbins goes back in history to look for an answer to that question. In 1896, Bridgit Driscoll became the first person in England to be killed by a motor car. The reaction among the public and the press was a fatalistic acceptance that progress will have a price. Within a few years, the speed limit in England was raised from 8 mph — which is was when Ms. Driscoll was killed — to 20 mph. This despite the fact that thousands of road deaths were being recorded on English roads by then.
Regulators around the world are racing to catch up with the explosion of new autonomous driving technology. But Robbins concludes, “By the time they do, it’s likely that the technology will already be an accepted fact of life, its safety taken for granted by consumers, its failures written off as the fault of its error-prone human masters.”
The point is that injuries and fatalities will continue to occur as cars come to rely more and more on machines for routine driving chores. But in that transition period between now and the time when Level 4 autonomy becomes the norm — the day when cars come from the factory with no way for humans to control them directly — we need to accept that complacency and an inflated belief in the power of machines to protect us from harm may actually render us less competent behind the wheel.
We will need to remain vigilant, if for no other reason than telling a jury “It’s not my fault! The machine failed!” is not going to insulate us from the legal requirement to operate our private automobiles in a safe and prudent manner.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) reports 336,681 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025
The report was published on the company’s Investor Relations website.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its first quarter 2025 vehicle delivery and production report.
The report was published on the company’s Investor Relations website.
Q1 2025 Deliveries
In the first quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 336,681 vehicles globally. This is comprised of 323,800 Model 3 and Model Y, as well as 12,881 units of Tesla’s other models.
In comparison, Tesla’s company-compiled consensus indicated that analysts were expecting 377,592 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025. FactSet estimates were even more optimistic, with analysts expecting vehicle deliveries of 407,900 units in the first quarter.
Q1 2025 Production
Tesla produced a total of 362,615 vehicles in the first quarter across its factories globally. From this number, a total of 345,454 units were comprised of the Model 3 and Model Y, and 17,161 were comprised of the company’s other models.
In its Q1 2025 vehicle production and delivery report, Tesla noted that the changeover of its Model Y lines across Gigafactory Texas, Fremont Factory, Gigafactory Shanghai, and Gigafactory Berlin, led to the loss of several weeks’ worth of production in the quarter. The vehicle, however, is now being ramped.
TSLA Reaction
While Tesla missed analysts’ expectations, investors do not seem to be too disappointed. As per writing, TSLA stock is just down 1.87% at $263.43 per share.
Wells Fargo reiterated its Tesla price target of $130, delivering a grim forecast for the electric vehicle company in the near term. However, not all Wall Street analysts agree with Wells Fargo’s prediction.
In a Tuesday note, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan outlined a few factors driving the bank’s bearish stance, which might lead to a 53% downside from current levels. The firm reiterated its “Underweight” rating and added Tesla to its tactical ideas list for Q2.
According to Business Insider, Tesla shares have dropped 32% year-to-date, with a 44% slide since mid-December. Wells Fargo points to a slowdown in vehicle sales across Europe, China, and the U.S. as a key drag on first-quarter deliveries. The bank’s data shows deliveries trending 40% lower in Europe, 14% lower in China, and 3% lower in North America through 2025.
The sales dip aligns with broader challenges for Tesla, i.e., nationwide protests tied to CEO Elon Musk’s “close ties to the Trump administration. Musk’s DOGE initiative to cut government spending, in particular, has stirred a backlash.
Not all analysts agree with Wells Fargo’s assessment, as Tesla was not pushing sales for its best-selling Model Y vehicle in Q1. In the first quarter, Tesla was retooling its gigafactories in Europe, China, and North America in preparation to produce the upgraded Model Y.
Wells Fargo cautioned that this sales drop will hit Tesla’s earnings hard and believes the company has limited options to spark a rebound. The firm reasons that Tesla has slashed prices over the past two years, leaving few tools to boost demand.
Wells Fargo predicts that further pressure could come from the Trump administration’s potential axing of the $7,500 federal tax credit. The bank projects a 25% drop in TSLA earnings per share for 2025, driven by lower deliveries and pricing pressures.
For investors, the road ahead looks rocky as Tesla navigates these headwinds, based on Wells Fargo’s forecast. However, Tesla’s long-term future has resulted in a few bright predictions from Wall Street analysts.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas predicts Tesla stocks will rebound over 90% within the next year. The firm set a $430 price target for TSLA, citing Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and robotaxi business as potential catalysts for the company. Meanwhile, Canaccord reaffirmed Tesla’s price target of $404 after a visit to Gigafactory Texas, stating that deliveries have mostly been impacted by supply constraints in the first quarter.
New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is urging the NYC Law Department to sue Tesla for securities violations related to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Lander said the basis for the potential litigation lies on “material misstatements from Tesla claiming that CEO Elon Musk spends significant time on the company and is highly active in its management, despite his helming the Trump Administration’s DOGE initiative.”
🚨 NEWS: New York City Comptroller Brad Lander wants to sue Tesla by claiming CEO Elon Musk’s role as the head of DOGE is hurting the stock.
Lander said that Musk was “effectively quitting his job at Tesla” by assuming the role with DOGE. pic.twitter.com/p9eMq9mMbr
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 1, 2025
It is a common complaint amongst some Tesla shareholders who are less than enthusiastic about Musk’s involvement in DOGE. Some feel as if Musk is not concerned about Tesla, especially as the stock has dropped over 28 percent this year. However, Musk has continued to double down on his position within the U.S. government.
Nevertheless, Musk’s position in Tesla is still very apparent. He headed an All-Hands meeting just two weeks ago that showed his commitment to the company as he outlined future plans and even joked to employees that they should hold onto their stock.
However, Lander believes Musk’s involvement has hurt New York City pension systems, which have lost over $300 million so far this year. He said:
“In less than three months, Tesla stock has lost nearly 40% of its value, with losses over $300 million for the New York City pension systems. We have long expressed concerns that the Tesla board has failed to provide independent oversight, or to require that Musk – or someone else – serve as a full-time CEO.”
Lander went on to say that “material misstatements from Tesla misled investors about his role at the company,” stating this was his reasoning for calling on the Law Department to file securities litigation against the company.
He believes taking it to court will force changes and will return Tesla shares back to a level that will benefit pension systems in New York City:
“Shareholder litigation could force the changes in governance and leadership that Tesla needs, and help recover some of our pension systems’ losses. Otherwise, we may need to consider divestment.”
The pension systems would be able to pursue financial damages to cover losses and seek governance changes, it says.
Tesla (TSLA) reports 336,681 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025
Wells Fargo reiterates Tesla (TSLA) price target of $130
NYC Comptroller moves to sue Tesla for securities violations
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