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Adoption of Tesla’s electric truck will be driven by regulation
It’s expected that the commercial trucking industry will begin to transform in the same way that the passenger automotive industry has. Fuel efficiency has become a new priority and electrification is now the go-to plan for achieving higher MPGs in heavy trucking. In much the same way that regulations pushed trucking towards lower pollution at the expense of efficiency in the 1970s, today’s trucking paradigm is seeing a push for more efficiency. At what expense?
A new report from Ravi Shanker at Morgan Stanley urges investors to consider electric and self-driving commercial trucking as an opportunity. Shanker says that regulations and economics will drive the industry towards electrification and autonomous technologies. The analyst says that this could happen as early as 2020, which is when new federal fuel economy regulations on heavy-duty vehicles begin to really gather steam. Although efficiency gains will be had with electrification and self-driving, Shanker makes it clear that this will be secondary to the demand created by regulatory pressure.
As usual, we look to California for a glimpse of what could be coming. California’s Sustainable Freight Action Plan calls for 100,000+ zero-emissions trucks to be on the road by 2030 in that state. There is debate as to whether this plan is realistic, but federal standards are also playing a large role. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (part of the federal Department of Transportation) have proposed emissions and fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles. The first of these began with the 2014 model year.
For our purposes, the regulations affecting “combination tractors” (aka “tractor-trailer” or “18 wheeler”) models are pertinent. The 2018 standards are relatively loose and most in the industry believe they are achievable, but the EPA and NHTSA have proposed further standards to begin in 2021, with incremental increases thereafter through to 2027. The goals are largely aimed towards lower CO2 emissions with reductions of about four percent (depending on the vehicle type) being the goal. The reduction is not the issue with industry insiders, however, it’s the test cycle to be used, which some argue is less realistic and which disfavors other emissions that also have requirements to be met. This Phase 2 of the federal efficiency standards for heavy trucks is not yet finalized, but will very likely be the driving force behind national changes in trucks.
Equating these changes into standard numbers that the general public would understand is difficult. Heavy-duty trucks can range in fuel efficiency from 20 mpg or better down to 2-3 mpg. For most tractor-trailer combinations, MPG averages of 4-9 mpg are the norm, depending on load, tractor type, and area of operation. Most analysts calculate efficiency using fuel use in tons per mile with a relatively long distance (100-500 miles) being the average. Using this method, for example, in my time driving a tractor pulling a refrigerated trailer across all 48 states, my fuel economy average was about average for that sector of the industry at roughly 60 ton-miles per gallon. Today, these numbers are slightly higher, according to the latest U.S. Transportation Energy book. Using this method of calculation, a 2015 Toyota Prius is about a third as efficient at moving freight as was my truck.
This doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement, of course. There are more companies than Tesla working towards deleting the smoke stacks from big trucks.
In Europe, Volvo trucks is working hard towards a zero-emissions (at the tailpipe anyway) trucking solution with several approaches being tested. An overhead tram-like charging system has been deployed for a short stretch of highway in Sweden, aiming to improve plug-in trucks’ range in EV mode. Short-haul battery electrics and two different versions of autonomous (or semi-autonomous) systems are also being tested.
Here in the States, Volvo’s Mack Trucks is working on a handful of electrification options for heavy-duty drivetrains. So is Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star in the U.S.). Startups like Nikola also have eyes on this electric trucking future. Other startups have hoped to get into the mix as well, but the failure rate is high with companies like Smith Electric, Vision Industries, and Boulder Electric having designed and marketed innovative commercial truck options that ultimately never caught on.
Meanwhile, the largest maker of electric heavy vehicles is Chinese maker BYD, who branched out from making gadget batteries into building electric buses, trucks, and more. They are currently filling contracts internationally for buses and trucks in places as disparate at California, Malaysia, and Europe. BYD builds battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid drivetrains and machines for several commercial market sectors.
So we can guarantee that changes to the trucking industry are coming, but no one can say how fast or how much change that will be. Current federal regulations will drive the industry forward until 2018 and it’s likely that new standards will be in place to keep carrying change forward after that. California’s ambitious plans for adopting electric trucks will be largely regulation and incentive driven, but that has down sides as well. Many of the startups we’ve seen who’ve created electrified big rigs or delivery trucks ultimately failed when the incentives began to dry up.
For Tesla, this could mean that the financial case for the Tesla Semi will need to be more economics-based and less dependent on single market, incentives-based plans. This means that Elon and Co should be looking beyond California and it’s 100,000 vehicle plans into a broader market. We’ll discuss the potential economic case for a Tesla Semi in a future editorial.
Elon Musk revealed new information on Tesla’s AI5, previously known as Hardware 5, chip, for self-driving, which will be manufactured by both Samsung and TSMC.
The AI5 chip is Tesla’s next-generation hardware chip for its self-driving program, Optimus humanoid robots, and other AI-driven features in both vehicles and other applications. It will be the successor to the current AI4, previously known as Hardware 4, which is currently utilized in Tesla’s newest vehicles.
Elon Musk reveals Tesla’s HW5 release date, and that it won’t be called HW5
AI5 is specially optimized for Tesla use, as it will work alongside the company’s Neural Networks to focus on real-time inference to make safe and logical decisions during operation. It was first teased by Tesla in mid-2024 as Musk called it “an amazing design” and “an immense jump” from the current AI4 chip.
It will be roughly 4o times faster, have 8 times the raw compute, 9 times the memory capacity, 5 times the memory bandwidth, and 3 times the efficiency per watt.
It will be manufactured by both TSMC and Samsung at their Arizona and Texas fab locations, respectively.
Here’s what Musk revealed about the chip yesterday:
Different Versions
Samsung and TSMC will make slightly different versions of the AI5 chip, “simply because they translate designs to physical form differently.” However, Musk said the goal is that its AI software would work identically.
This was a real concern for some who are familiar with chip manufacturing, as Apple’s A9 “Chipgate” saga seemed to be echoing through Tesla.
Back in 2015, it was found that Apple’s A9 chips had different performances based on who manufactured them. TSMC and Samsung were both building the chips, but it was found that Samsung’s chips had shorter battery life than TSMC-fabricated versions.
Apple concluded that the variance was about 2-3 percent. However, Tesla will look to avoid this altogether.
Release and Implementation into Vehicles
Musk said that some samples will be available next year, and “maybe a small number of units” would equip the chip as well. However, high-volume production is only possible in 2027.
This means, based on Tesla’s own timeline for Cybercab production in Q2 2026, early iterations of the vehicle would rely on AI4. Many believe AI4 can be utilized for solved self-driving, but the power of subsequent versions, including AI5 and beyond, will be more capable.
AI6 and Beyond
AI6 will utilize the same fabs as AI5, but there would be a theoretical boost in performance by two times with this version.
AI6 could enter volume production by mid-2028. However, AI7, which Musk only briefly mentioned, “will need different fabs, as it is more adventurous.”
News
Tesla makes a splash at China’s Import Expo with Cybercab and Optimus
It appears that Elon Musk’s vision is something that still resonates with people.
Tesla’s fully autonomous Cybercab made its first appearance in the Asia-Pacific region at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai on November 5, becoming the centerpiece of an event that drew 12 of the world’s leading automakers.
The new model offers a glimpse into Tesla’s driverless ride-hailing future, and based on the reception of the event’s attendees, it appears that Elon Musk’s vision is something that still resonates with people.
Tesla showcases its driverless vision with the Cybercab
At this year’s expo, themed “Mobility, Infinite Possibilities,” Tesla’s futuristic two-seat Cybercab stood out as a showcase of complete autonomy. According to Tesla staff, the vehicle lacks both a steering wheel and pedals, relying entirely on Tesla’s cameras and an end-to-end neural network designed for full self-driving.
The Cybercab will ultimately serve in the company’s expanding Robotaxi fleet, a cornerstone of Elon Musk’s long-promised autonomous mobility network. During the event, a Tesla employee emphasized that the Cybercab’s model’s compact layout reflects real-world usage, as 92% of trips involve just one or two passengers, as noted in a Sina News report. Trips that require more passengers could easily be handled by the Model 3 and Model Y, which are both capable of seating four, or even five passengers.
Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot that is designed for both home and industrial use, was also present at the event. Similar to the Cybercab, Optimus also attracted quite a lot of attention from the event’s attendees.
Automakers reaffirm commitment to Chinese innovation
Other global automakers, including Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Honda, also displayed cutting-edge concept cars and intelligent systems, but few captured the same interest as Tesla’s bold showcase of its autonomy and robotics.
Beyond new models, this year’s CIIE highlighted a renewed focus on local innovation and collaboration in China’s rapidly evolving EV landscape. Executives from Volkswagen, Audi, and General Motors reaffirmed that their long-term strategies center on “in China, for China,” strengthening R&D operations and forming tech partnerships with domestic suppliers.
Elon Musk
Tesla gets big nod on Musk comp package from Charles Schwab
“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value.”
Tesla got a big nod of approval on CEO Elon Musk’s newly-proposed compensation package from Wall Street firm Charles Schwab after many shareholders believed the company was aiming to go against the new pay structure for its frontman.
Yesterday, we reported on many Tesla investors threatening to leave Charles Schwab as their broker after it was assumed the firm would vote against Musk’s pay package. The impression was that Schwab would utilize the same voting strategies as Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), which both said they would vote against the new compensation package.
However, Schwab reached out to TESLARATI directly yesterday to confirm that it had not made any statement on which way it would vote. It then confirmed to us that it would vote to support Musk’s pay package:
UPDATE: a Charles Schwab spokesperson has reached out to TESLARATI with the following statement:
“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value.… https://t.co/gG9iFhTgdJ
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 4, 2025
The statement to TESLARATI said:
“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”
Schwab also came out with a new statement just after that would be released to the public, stating that its delayed decision on the compensation package was due to its “structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value.”
The firm uses a three-step program to determine its decision on a key vote like this one:
- board composition and quality
- actions a board has taken to drive strategy, deliver performance and manage relevant risks
- clarity and accessibility of reporting on key issues
It then said it applies its own internal guidelines and does not rely on recommendations from other firms, like Glass Lewis or ISS.
It continued:
“In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”
Charles Schwab then received kudos from the Tesla community on their decision to vote for Musk to receive this compensation package.
Tesla teases new AI5 chip that will revolutionize self-driving
Tesla makes a splash at China’s Import Expo with Cybercab and Optimus
Tesla gets big nod on Musk comp package from Charles Schwab
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