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Adoption of Tesla’s electric truck will be driven by regulation
It’s expected that the commercial trucking industry will begin to transform in the same way that the passenger automotive industry has. Fuel efficiency has become a new priority and electrification is now the go-to plan for achieving higher MPGs in heavy trucking. In much the same way that regulations pushed trucking towards lower pollution at the expense of efficiency in the 1970s, today’s trucking paradigm is seeing a push for more efficiency. At what expense?
A new report from Ravi Shanker at Morgan Stanley urges investors to consider electric and self-driving commercial trucking as an opportunity. Shanker says that regulations and economics will drive the industry towards electrification and autonomous technologies. The analyst says that this could happen as early as 2020, which is when new federal fuel economy regulations on heavy-duty vehicles begin to really gather steam. Although efficiency gains will be had with electrification and self-driving, Shanker makes it clear that this will be secondary to the demand created by regulatory pressure.
As usual, we look to California for a glimpse of what could be coming. California’s Sustainable Freight Action Plan calls for 100,000+ zero-emissions trucks to be on the road by 2030 in that state. There is debate as to whether this plan is realistic, but federal standards are also playing a large role. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (part of the federal Department of Transportation) have proposed emissions and fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles. The first of these began with the 2014 model year.
For our purposes, the regulations affecting “combination tractors” (aka “tractor-trailer” or “18 wheeler”) models are pertinent. The 2018 standards are relatively loose and most in the industry believe they are achievable, but the EPA and NHTSA have proposed further standards to begin in 2021, with incremental increases thereafter through to 2027. The goals are largely aimed towards lower CO2 emissions with reductions of about four percent (depending on the vehicle type) being the goal. The reduction is not the issue with industry insiders, however, it’s the test cycle to be used, which some argue is less realistic and which disfavors other emissions that also have requirements to be met. This Phase 2 of the federal efficiency standards for heavy trucks is not yet finalized, but will very likely be the driving force behind national changes in trucks.
Equating these changes into standard numbers that the general public would understand is difficult. Heavy-duty trucks can range in fuel efficiency from 20 mpg or better down to 2-3 mpg. For most tractor-trailer combinations, MPG averages of 4-9 mpg are the norm, depending on load, tractor type, and area of operation. Most analysts calculate efficiency using fuel use in tons per mile with a relatively long distance (100-500 miles) being the average. Using this method, for example, in my time driving a tractor pulling a refrigerated trailer across all 48 states, my fuel economy average was about average for that sector of the industry at roughly 60 ton-miles per gallon. Today, these numbers are slightly higher, according to the latest U.S. Transportation Energy book. Using this method of calculation, a 2015 Toyota Prius is about a third as efficient at moving freight as was my truck.
This doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement, of course. There are more companies than Tesla working towards deleting the smoke stacks from big trucks.
In Europe, Volvo trucks is working hard towards a zero-emissions (at the tailpipe anyway) trucking solution with several approaches being tested. An overhead tram-like charging system has been deployed for a short stretch of highway in Sweden, aiming to improve plug-in trucks’ range in EV mode. Short-haul battery electrics and two different versions of autonomous (or semi-autonomous) systems are also being tested.
Here in the States, Volvo’s Mack Trucks is working on a handful of electrification options for heavy-duty drivetrains. So is Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star in the U.S.). Startups like Nikola also have eyes on this electric trucking future. Other startups have hoped to get into the mix as well, but the failure rate is high with companies like Smith Electric, Vision Industries, and Boulder Electric having designed and marketed innovative commercial truck options that ultimately never caught on.
Meanwhile, the largest maker of electric heavy vehicles is Chinese maker BYD, who branched out from making gadget batteries into building electric buses, trucks, and more. They are currently filling contracts internationally for buses and trucks in places as disparate at California, Malaysia, and Europe. BYD builds battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid drivetrains and machines for several commercial market sectors.
So we can guarantee that changes to the trucking industry are coming, but no one can say how fast or how much change that will be. Current federal regulations will drive the industry forward until 2018 and it’s likely that new standards will be in place to keep carrying change forward after that. California’s ambitious plans for adopting electric trucks will be largely regulation and incentive driven, but that has down sides as well. Many of the startups we’ve seen who’ve created electrified big rigs or delivery trucks ultimately failed when the incentives began to dry up.
For Tesla, this could mean that the financial case for the Tesla Semi will need to be more economics-based and less dependent on single market, incentives-based plans. This means that Elon and Co should be looking beyond California and it’s 100,000 vehicle plans into a broader market. We’ll discuss the potential economic case for a Tesla Semi in a future editorial.
Elon Musk
SpaceX secures FAA approval for 44 annual Starship launches in Florida
The FAA’s environmental review covers up to 44 launches annually, along with 44 Super Heavy booster landings and 44 upper-stage landings.
SpaceX has received environmental approval from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to conduct up to 44 Starship-Super Heavy launches per year from Kennedy Space Center Launch Complex 39A in Florida.
The decision allows the company to proceed with plans tied to its next-generation launch system and future satellite deployments.
The FAA’s environmental review covers up to 44 launches annually, along with 44 Super Heavy booster landings and 44 upper-stage landings. The approval concludes the agency’s public comment period and outlines required mitigation measures related to noise, emissions, wildlife, and airspace management.
Construction of Starship infrastructure at Launch Complex 39A is nearing completion. The site, previously used for Apollo and space shuttle missions, is transitioning to support Starship operations, as noted in a Florida Today report.
If fully deployed across Kennedy Space Center and nearby Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Starship activity on the Space Coast could exceed 120 launches annually, excluding tests. Separately, the U.S. Air Force has authorized repurposing Space Launch Complex 37 for potential additional Starship activity, pending further FAA airspace analysis.
The approval supports SpaceX’s long-term strategy, which includes deploying a large constellation of satellites intended to power space-based artificial intelligence data infrastructure. The company has previously indicated that expanded Starship capacity will be central to that effort.
The FAA review identified likely impacts from increased noise, nitrogen oxide emissions, and temporary airspace closures. Commercial flights may experience periodic delays during launch windows. The agency, however, determined these effects would be intermittent and manageable through scheduling, public notification, and worker safety protocols.
Wildlife protections are required under the approval, Florida Today noted. These include lighting controls to protect sea turtles, seasonal monitoring of scrub jays and beach mice, and restrictions on offshore landings to avoid coral reefs and right whale critical habitat. Recovery vessels must also carry trained observers to prevent collisions with protected marine species.
Elon Musk
Texas township wants The Boring Company to build it a Loop system
The township’s board unanimously approved an application to The Boring Company’s “Tunnel Vision Challenge.”
The Woodlands Township, Texas, has formally entered The Boring Company’s tunneling sweepstakes.
The township’s board unanimously approved an application to The Boring Company’s “Tunnel Vision Challenge,” which offers up to one mile of tunnel construction at no cost to a selected community.
The Woodlands’ proposal, dubbed “The Current,” features two parallel 12-foot-diameter tunnels beneath the Town Center corridor near The Waterway. Teslas would shuttle passengers between Waterway Square, Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion, Town Green Park and nearby hotels during concerts and large-scale events, as noted in a Chron report.
Township officials framed the tunnel as a solution for the township’s traffic congestion issues. The Pavilion alone hosts more than 60 shows each year and can accommodate crowds of up to 16,500, often straining Lake Robbins Drive and surrounding intersections.
“We know we have traffic impacts and pedestrian movement challenges, especially in the Town Center area,” Chris Nunes, chief operating officer of The Woodlands Township, stated during the meeting.
“The Current” mirrors the Loop system operating beneath the Las Vegas Convention Center, where Tesla vehicles transport passengers through underground tunnels between venues and resorts.
The Boring Company issued its request for proposals (RFP) in mid-January, inviting cities and districts to pitch local uses for its tunneling technology. The Woodlands must submit its application by Feb. 23, though no timeline has been provided for when a winning community will be announced.
Nunes confirmed that the board has authorized a submission for “The Current’s” proposal, though he emphasized that the project is still in its preliminary stages.
“The Woodlands Township Board of Directors has authorized staff to submit an application to The Boring Company, which has issued an RFP for communities interested in leveraging their technology to address community challenges,” he said in a statement.
“The Board believes that an underground tunnel would provide a safe and efficient means to transport people to and from various high-use community amenities in our Town Center.”
News
Tesla Model Y wins 2026 Drive Car of the Year award in Australia
The Model Y is already Australia’s best-selling EV in 2025 and the tenth best-selling vehicle overall.
The Tesla Model Y has been named 2026 Drive Car of the Year overall winner, taking the top honor after being judged as the vehicle that “moves the game forward the most for Australian new car buyers.”
The Model Y is already Australia’s best-selling EV in 2025 and the tenth best-selling vehicle overall, but the vehicle’s Juniper update strengthened its case with new ownership benefits and expanded software capability.
Drive’s overall award compares category winners and looks at which model most significantly advances the local new car market. In 2026, judges pointed to the Model Y’s five-year warranty and the availability of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) as a monthly subscription as key differentiators.
Priced from AU$58,900 before on-road costs, the all-electric crossover SUV offers a lot of value compared to similarly sized petrol and hybrid rivals. The ability to access Tesla’s Supercharger network across Australia also reduces friction for buyers moving to EV ownership.
Owners can add FSD (Supervised) for AU$149 per month. While it still requires driver oversight, the system expands the vehicle’s advanced driver-assistance capabilities and reflects Tesla’s software-first approach.
“The default choice for a reason. The Tesla Model Y makes the transition to electric both effortless and rewarding,” Drive wrote.
The 2025 Model Y facelift also sharpened the vehicle’s exterior, highlighted by a distinctive rear light bar that gives the crossover SUV a more modern road presence.
Drive described the Model Y as a benchmark for combining practicality, efficiency and technology at an accessible price point. With eligibility for federal Fringe Benefit Tax exemptions through novated leasing, its value proposition has improved for numerous buyers.
For 2026, the Model Y’s combination of range efficiency, charging access and software capability proved decisive. Ultimately, the award all but cements the Model Y’s position as one of the most influential vehicles in Australia’s evolving new-car market today.
SpaceX secures FAA approval for 44 annual Starship launches in Florida
Texas township wants The Boring Company to build it a Loop system
