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Adoption of Tesla’s electric truck will be driven by regulation
It’s expected that the commercial trucking industry will begin to transform in the same way that the passenger automotive industry has. Fuel efficiency has become a new priority and electrification is now the go-to plan for achieving higher MPGs in heavy trucking. In much the same way that regulations pushed trucking towards lower pollution at the expense of efficiency in the 1970s, today’s trucking paradigm is seeing a push for more efficiency. At what expense?
A new report from Ravi Shanker at Morgan Stanley urges investors to consider electric and self-driving commercial trucking as an opportunity. Shanker says that regulations and economics will drive the industry towards electrification and autonomous technologies. The analyst says that this could happen as early as 2020, which is when new federal fuel economy regulations on heavy-duty vehicles begin to really gather steam. Although efficiency gains will be had with electrification and self-driving, Shanker makes it clear that this will be secondary to the demand created by regulatory pressure.
As usual, we look to California for a glimpse of what could be coming. California’s Sustainable Freight Action Plan calls for 100,000+ zero-emissions trucks to be on the road by 2030 in that state. There is debate as to whether this plan is realistic, but federal standards are also playing a large role. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (part of the federal Department of Transportation) have proposed emissions and fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles. The first of these began with the 2014 model year.
For our purposes, the regulations affecting “combination tractors” (aka “tractor-trailer” or “18 wheeler”) models are pertinent. The 2018 standards are relatively loose and most in the industry believe they are achievable, but the EPA and NHTSA have proposed further standards to begin in 2021, with incremental increases thereafter through to 2027. The goals are largely aimed towards lower CO2 emissions with reductions of about four percent (depending on the vehicle type) being the goal. The reduction is not the issue with industry insiders, however, it’s the test cycle to be used, which some argue is less realistic and which disfavors other emissions that also have requirements to be met. This Phase 2 of the federal efficiency standards for heavy trucks is not yet finalized, but will very likely be the driving force behind national changes in trucks.
Equating these changes into standard numbers that the general public would understand is difficult. Heavy-duty trucks can range in fuel efficiency from 20 mpg or better down to 2-3 mpg. For most tractor-trailer combinations, MPG averages of 4-9 mpg are the norm, depending on load, tractor type, and area of operation. Most analysts calculate efficiency using fuel use in tons per mile with a relatively long distance (100-500 miles) being the average. Using this method, for example, in my time driving a tractor pulling a refrigerated trailer across all 48 states, my fuel economy average was about average for that sector of the industry at roughly 60 ton-miles per gallon. Today, these numbers are slightly higher, according to the latest U.S. Transportation Energy book. Using this method of calculation, a 2015 Toyota Prius is about a third as efficient at moving freight as was my truck.
This doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement, of course. There are more companies than Tesla working towards deleting the smoke stacks from big trucks.
In Europe, Volvo trucks is working hard towards a zero-emissions (at the tailpipe anyway) trucking solution with several approaches being tested. An overhead tram-like charging system has been deployed for a short stretch of highway in Sweden, aiming to improve plug-in trucks’ range in EV mode. Short-haul battery electrics and two different versions of autonomous (or semi-autonomous) systems are also being tested.
Here in the States, Volvo’s Mack Trucks is working on a handful of electrification options for heavy-duty drivetrains. So is Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star in the U.S.). Startups like Nikola also have eyes on this electric trucking future. Other startups have hoped to get into the mix as well, but the failure rate is high with companies like Smith Electric, Vision Industries, and Boulder Electric having designed and marketed innovative commercial truck options that ultimately never caught on.
Meanwhile, the largest maker of electric heavy vehicles is Chinese maker BYD, who branched out from making gadget batteries into building electric buses, trucks, and more. They are currently filling contracts internationally for buses and trucks in places as disparate at California, Malaysia, and Europe. BYD builds battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid drivetrains and machines for several commercial market sectors.
So we can guarantee that changes to the trucking industry are coming, but no one can say how fast or how much change that will be. Current federal regulations will drive the industry forward until 2018 and it’s likely that new standards will be in place to keep carrying change forward after that. California’s ambitious plans for adopting electric trucks will be largely regulation and incentive driven, but that has down sides as well. Many of the startups we’ve seen who’ve created electrified big rigs or delivery trucks ultimately failed when the incentives began to dry up.
For Tesla, this could mean that the financial case for the Tesla Semi will need to be more economics-based and less dependent on single market, incentives-based plans. This means that Elon and Co should be looking beyond California and it’s 100,000 vehicle plans into a broader market. We’ll discuss the potential economic case for a Tesla Semi in a future editorial.
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Tesla Optimus V3 gets early third-party feedback, and it’s eye-opening
Jason Calacanis’ remarks, which were shared during a discussion at CES 2026, offered one of the first third-party impressions of the yet-to-be-unveiled robot
Angel investor and entrepreneur Jason Calacanis shared some insights after he got an early look at Tesla’s upcoming Optimus V3. His remarks, which were shared during a discussion at CES 2026, offered one of the first third-party impressions of the yet-to-be-unveiled robot.
Calacanis’ comments were shared publicly on X, and they were quite noteworthy.
The angel investor stated that he visited Tesla’s Optimus lab on a Sunday morning and observed that the place was buzzing with energy. The investor then shared a rare, shocking insight. As per Calacanis, Optimus V3 will be so revolutionary that people will probably not even remember that Tesla used to make cars in the future.
“I don’t want to name drop, but two Sundays ago, I went to Tesla with Elon and I went and visited the Optimus lab. There were a large number of people working on a Sunday at 10 a.m. and I saw Optimus 3. I can tell you now, nobody will remember that Tesla ever made a car,” he noted.
The angel investor also reiterated the primary advantage of Optimus, and how it could effectively change the world.
“They will only remember the Optimus and that he is going to make a billion of those, and it is going to be the most transformative technology product ever made in the history of humanity, because what LLMs are gonna enable those products to do is understand the world and then do things in the world that we don’t want to do. I believe there will be a 1:1 ratio of humans to Optimus, and I think he’s already won,” he said.
While Calacanis’ comments were clearly opinion-driven, they stood out as among the first from a non-Tesla employee about Optimus V3. Considering his reaction to the humanoid robot, perhaps Elon Musk’s predictions for Optimus V3 might not be too far-fetched at all.
Tesla has been careful with its public messaging around Optimus V3’s development stage. Musk has previously stated on X that Optimus V3 has not yet been revealed publicly, clarifying that images and videos of the robot online still show Optimus V2 and V2.5, not the next-generation unit. As for Calacanis’ recent comments, however, Musk responded with a simple “Probably true” in a post on X.
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Tesla taps Samsung for 5G modems amid plans of Robotaxi ramp: report
The move signals Tesla’s growing focus on supply-chain diversification and next-generation communications as it prepares to scale its autonomous driving and robotaxi operations.
A report from South Korea has suggested that Samsung Electronics is set to begin supplying 5G automotive modems to Tesla. If accurate, this would mark a major expansion of the two companies’ partnership beyond AI chips and into vehicle connectivity.
The move signals Tesla’s growing focus on supply-chain diversification and next-generation communications as it prepares to scale its autonomous driving and Robotaxi operations.
Samsung’s 5G modem
As per industry sources cited by TheElec, Samsung’s System LSI division has completed development of a dedicated automotive-grade 5G modem for Tesla. The 5G modem is reportedly in its testing phase. Initial supply is expected to begin in the first half of this year, with the first deployments planned for Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet in Texas. A wider rollout to consumer vehicles is expected to follow.
Development of the modem began in early 2024 and it required a separate engineering process from Samsung’s smartphone modems. Automotive modems must meet stricter durability standards, including resistance to extreme temperatures and vibration, along with reliability over a service life exceeding 10 years. Samsung will handle chip design internally, while a partner company would reportedly manage module integration.
The deal represents the first time Samsung has supplied Tesla with a 5G vehicle modem. Tesla has historically relied on Qualcomm for automotive connectivity, but the new agreement suggests that the electric vehicle maker may be putting in some serious effort into diversifying its suppliers as connectivity becomes more critical to autonomous driving.
Deepening Tesla–Samsung ties
The modem supply builds on a rapidly expanding relationship between the two companies. Tesla previously selected Samsung’s foundry business to manufacture its next-generation AI6 chips, a deal valued at more than 22.7 trillion won and announced in mid-2025. Together, the AI chip and 5G modem agreements position Samsung as a key semiconductor partner for Tesla’s future vehicle platforms.
Industry observers have stated that the collaboration aligns with Tesla’s broader effort to reduce reliance on Chinese and Taiwanese suppliers. Geopolitical risk and long-term supply stability are believed to be driving the shift in no small part, particularly as Tesla prepares for large-scale Robotaxi deployment.
Stable, high-speed connectivity is essential for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, supporting real-time mapping, fleet management, and continuous software updates. By pairing in-vehicle AI computing with a new 5G modem supplier, Tesla appears to be tightening control over both its hardware stack and its global supply chain.
Tesla’s new Full Self-Driving pricing strategy will eliminate one recurring complaint that many owners have had in the past: FSD transfers.
In the past, if a Tesla owner purchased the Full Self-Driving suite outright, the company did not allow them to transfer the purchase to a new vehicle, essentially requiring them to buy it all over again, which could obviously get pretty pricey.
This was until Q3 2023, when Tesla allowed a one-time amnesty to transfer Full Self-Driving to a new vehicle, and then again last year.
Tesla is now allowing it to happen again ahead of the February 14th deadline.
The program has given people the opportunity to upgrade to new vehicles with newer Hardware and AI versions, especially those with Hardware 3 who wish to transfer to AI4, without feeling the drastic cost impact of having to buy the $8,000 suite outright on several occasions.
Now, that issue will never be presented again.
Last night, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced on X that the Full Self-Driving suite would only be available in a subscription platform, which is the other purchase option it currently offers for FSD use, priced at just $99 per month.
Tesla is shifting FSD to a subscription-only model, confirms Elon Musk
Having it available in a subscription-only platform boasts several advantages, including the potential for a tiered system that would potentially offer less expensive options, a pay-per-mile platform, and even coupling the program with other benefits, like Supercharging and vehicle protection programs.
While none of that is confirmed and is purely speculative, the one thing that does appear to be a major advantage is that this will completely eliminate any questions about transferring the Full Self-Driving suite to a new vehicle. This has been a particular point of contention for owners, and it is now completely eliminated, as everyone, apart from those who have purchased the suite on their current vehicle.
Now, everyone will pay month-to-month, and it could make things much easier for those who want to try the suite, justifying it from a financial perspective.
The important thing to note is that Tesla would benefit from a higher take rate, as more drivers using it would result in more data, which would help the company reach its recently-revealed 10 billion-mile threshold to reach an Unsupervised level. It does not cost Tesla anything to run FSD, only to develop it. If it could slice the price significantly, more people would buy it, and more data would be made available.
Tesla Optimus V3 gets early third-party feedback, and it’s eye-opening
Tesla taps Samsung for 5G modems amid plans of Robotaxi ramp: report
