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Adoption of Tesla’s electric truck will be driven by regulation

Published

9 years ago

August 17, 2016

Photo Credit: 'Model U' rendering by Truck Trend via Kris Horton

It’s expected that the commercial trucking industry will begin to transform in the same way that the passenger automotive industry has. Fuel efficiency has become a new priority and electrification is now the go-to plan for achieving higher MPGs in heavy trucking. In much the same way that regulations pushed trucking towards lower pollution at the expense of efficiency in the 1970s, today’s trucking paradigm is seeing a push for more efficiency. At what expense?

A new report from Ravi Shanker at Morgan Stanley urges investors to consider electric and self-driving commercial trucking as an opportunity. Shanker says that regulations and economics will drive the industry towards electrification and autonomous technologies. The analyst says that this could happen as early as 2020, which is when new federal fuel economy regulations on heavy-duty vehicles begin to really gather steam. Although efficiency gains will be had with electrification and self-driving, Shanker makes it clear that this will be secondary to the demand created by regulatory pressure.

As usual, we look to California for a glimpse of what could be coming. California’s Sustainable Freight Action Plan calls for 100,000+ zero-emissions trucks to be on the road by 2030 in that state. There is debate as to whether this plan is realistic, but federal standards are also playing a large role. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (part of the federal Department of Transportation) have proposed emissions and fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles. The first of these began with the 2014 model year.

For our purposes, the regulations affecting “combination tractors” (aka “tractor-trailer” or “18 wheeler”) models are pertinent. The 2018 standards are relatively loose and most in the industry believe they are achievable, but the EPA and NHTSA have proposed further standards to begin in 2021, with incremental increases thereafter through to 2027. The goals are largely aimed towards lower CO₂ emissions with reductions of about four percent (depending on the vehicle type) being the goal. The reduction is not the issue with industry insiders, however, it’s the test cycle to be used, which some argue is less realistic and which disfavors other emissions that also have requirements to be met. This Phase 2 of the federal efficiency standards for heavy trucks is not yet finalized, but will very likely be the driving force behind national changes in trucks.

Equating these changes into standard numbers that the general public would understand is difficult. Heavy-duty trucks can range in fuel efficiency from 20 mpg or better down to 2-3 mpg. For most tractor-trailer combinations, MPG averages of 4-9 mpg are the norm, depending on load, tractor type, and area of operation. Most analysts calculate efficiency using fuel use in tons per mile with a relatively long distance (100-500 miles) being the average. Using this method, for example, in my time driving a tractor pulling a refrigerated trailer across all 48 states, my fuel economy average was about average for that sector of the industry at roughly 60 ton-miles per gallon. Today, these numbers are slightly higher, according to the latest U.S. Transportation Energy book. Using this method of calculation, a 2015 Toyota Prius is about a third as efficient at moving freight as was my truck.

This doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement, of course. There are more companies than Tesla working towards deleting the smoke stacks from big trucks.

In Europe, Volvo trucks is working hard towards a zero-emissions (at the tailpipe anyway) trucking solution with several approaches being tested. An overhead tram-like charging system has been deployed for a short stretch of highway in Sweden, aiming to improve plug-in trucks’ range in EV mode. Short-haul battery electrics and two different versions of autonomous (or semi-autonomous) systems are also being tested.

Here in the States, Volvo’s Mack Trucks is working on a handful of electrification options for heavy-duty drivetrains. So is Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star in the U.S.). Startups like Nikola also have eyes on this electric trucking future. Other startups have hoped to get into the mix as well, but the failure rate is high with companies like Smith Electric, Vision Industries, and Boulder Electric having designed and marketed innovative commercial truck options that ultimately never caught on.

Meanwhile, the largest maker of electric heavy vehicles is Chinese maker BYD, who branched out from making gadget batteries into building electric buses, trucks, and more. They are currently filling contracts internationally for buses and trucks in places as disparate at California, Malaysia, and Europe. BYD builds battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid drivetrains and machines for several commercial market sectors.

So we can guarantee that changes to the trucking industry are coming, but no one can say how fast or how much change that will be. Current federal regulations will drive the industry forward until 2018 and it’s likely that new standards will be in place to keep carrying change forward after that. California’s ambitious plans for adopting electric trucks will be largely regulation and incentive driven, but that has down sides as well. Many of the startups we’ve seen who’ve created electrified big rigs or delivery trucks ultimately failed when the incentives began to dry up.

For Tesla, this could mean that the financial case for the Tesla Semi will need to be more economics-based and less dependent on single market, incentives-based plans. This means that Elon and Co should be looking beyond California and it’s 100,000 vehicle plans into a broader market. We’ll discuss the potential economic case for a Tesla Semi in a future editorial.

Related Topics:Featured Tesla Tesla Cybertruck Tesla Semi

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Aaron Turpen

Aaron Turpen is a freelance writer based in Wyoming, USA. He writes about a large number of subjects, many of which are in the transportation and automotive arenas. Aaron is a recognized automotive journalist, with a background in commercial trucking and automotive repair. He is a member of the Rocky Mountain Automotive Press (RMAP) and Aaron’s work has appeared on many websites, in print, and on local and national radio broadcasts including NPR’s All Things Considered and on Carfax.com.

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News

Tesla’s top investor questions ahead of the Q1 2025 earnings call

Unsupervised FSD, Cybercab, and future models are just a few of the leading topics for the upcoming earnings call.

Published

10 hours ago

April 15, 2025

Zachary Visconti

Credit: Tesla Asia | X

The next Tesla earnings call is a week away, and many investors have already started voting on which questions they want answered during the meeting.

Shareholders can submit and vote on questions for the upcoming call using the Say Technologies platform and at the time of writing, the page already has a total of 2.59 million Tesla shares represented in the polls across a total of 6,390 participants. The Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call is set for next Tuesday, April 22 at 2:30 p.m. Pacific, and will be hosted live on X.

Currently, the top questions for the call include those about Tesla’s highly anticipated launch of Full Self-Driving (FSD) Unsupervised and the Cybercab, plans for more affordable models, the uncertain global economic climate, the Optimus robot, and more. Shareholders can continue submitting questions on the platform until Monday, April 21 at 1:00 p.m. Pacific.

Tesla reported delivering 336,681 vehicles and producing 362,215 in the first quarter of the year, and the company noted that it lost several weeks of production as it transitioned to building the new Model Y. The company also reported deploying 10.4 GWh of energy storage products, compared to just 4,053 MWh in the first quarter of last year.

Interestingly, Tesla shifted its wording of the earnings call in this year’s Q1 production and delivery report, instead referring to the upcoming meeting as a “Q1 Company Update.”

Elon Musk

Elon Musk continues to push optimistic goal for Tesla Full Self-Driving

Elon Musk continues to push the idea that Teslas will be able to drive themselves to your house this year on their own. It’s perhaps the most committed we’ve seen him toward a timeline.

Published

11 hours ago

April 15, 2025

Joey Klender

(Credit: Tesla)

Elon Musk has always been optimistic about when Tesla would be able to solve Full Self-Driving and what its capabilities would be, and sometimes, he’s been a tad too optimistic.

We have heard for many years that Tesla will solve Full Self-Driving by the “end of this year,” and “this” means whichever year he said it in. But this time, he’s putting all his eggs in the 2025 basket, and it was further reiterated in a recent post from the Tesla CEO on X.

Musk’s Tesla has launched several versions of Full Self-Driving in recent months that are extremely impressive. I’ve tried some of these recently-released versions within the last week, and I’ve grown extremely impressed with the performance of FSD, especially in some situations that are even tricky for humans to maneuver.

However, Tesla’s FSD suite handled it flawlessly. That’s the kind of thing investors and consumers need to see before it is released, especially as we’ve all heard the “this year” speech for nearly a decade. It might be the real thing this time, especially as the company is leaning heavily on the Robotaxi fleet to take it to the next level.

Earlier today, Tesla’s official account on X indicated that your car will be able to drive itself to your house. Musk had a witty and simple reply, something that indicates and reiterates his optimistic outlook for FSD as it continues to be refined and adjusted for what will likely be a June release in Austin, Texas:

This year https://t.co/2eCadrXYfd
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 15, 2025

Of course, this is not a confirmation that Tesla will roll out Full Self-Driving that is unsupervised within the next few months. It is increasingly obvious that Musk is gaining tons of confidence in what the company is doing, as he has reiterated this end-of-year target on several occasions.

It does not appear that the release of FSD will be a widespread one. Instead, it seems as if Tesla will roll out the Robotaxi fleet in several cities at first, as it has already taken several regulatory steps in Texas and California.

Tesla receives its first robotaxi permit in California

If Tesla is able to come through on this, it would be massive for the company and its investors, especially as the FSD suite is a major point of value for the future. However, not coming through on this timeline would be a massive misstep for the company. Musk’s adamance regarding the 2025 rollout of self-driving features is truly the most committed we’ve ever seen him toward this sort of timeline.

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Tesla Cybertruck needs changes before Australia entry, but no guarantees it will arrive

Tesla Cybertruck could make its way to Australia, but the company’s country manager is not convinced quite yet.e

Published

12 hours ago

April 15, 2025

Joey Klender

Credit: Tesla

The Tesla Cybertruck is still in need of some changes before it makes its way to Australia, but the country’s director is still unsure whether the vehicle will ever make its way down under.

In March, we reported on Tesla’s intention to bring the Cybertruck to Australia and potentially New Zealand. Country Manager Thom Drew said Tesla had intentions to bring the truck to the market, especially as there is a lack of a “real workhorse, full EV that has the range and capability that Cybertruck does.”

Tesla plans to bring Cybertruck to new market for a big advantage

Now, there has been more criticism about the concerns for the vehicle to be approved for operation in Australia. Various people have said that the Cybertruck would not comply with Australian Design Rules, according to EVCentral. But Drew believes that those critics are simply spouting their opinions.

At the Melbourne Motor Show, Drew said:

“A lot of those concerns are unfounded around its compliance. There is a lot about it that works within the Australian compliance system. Are there changes required? That is absolutely part of the discussion with headquarters at the moment.”

It sounds as if Tesla might not have to change the truck but potentially redesign an all-new pickup design. The new truck will have to be right-hand drive, and steer-by-wire has been mentioned in some discussions as a potential issue for passing the ADRs.

Additionally, the shape and angles of the Cybertruck have been criticized in several markets as potentially dangerous to pedestrians. However, if you take the angular design and steer-by-wire away, it’s not really a Cybertruck any longer; it might end up being Tesla’s first traditional pickup design.

Currently, Drew remains skeptical that the Cybertruck will ever break into the Australian market. He said that a lot of these changes would require significant adjustments to the Cybertruck manufacturing program, as right-hand-drive units would have to be produced on the production lines in Gigafactory Texas. This could throw a wrench into the production timeline.

He added:

“I think the consideration we have to make a decision on, as a business, is Australia really the only right-hand drive market where it’s suitable? That is obviously part of the consideration for the program. I am not confident it’s coming, but we are discussing it. Locally, we want to see it [Cybertruck] here but it’s certainly not a done deal just yet.”

It seems somewhat unlikely as of right now that the Cybertruck will make its way into a new market.