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Adoption of Tesla’s electric truck will be driven by regulation
It’s expected that the commercial trucking industry will begin to transform in the same way that the passenger automotive industry has. Fuel efficiency has become a new priority and electrification is now the go-to plan for achieving higher MPGs in heavy trucking. In much the same way that regulations pushed trucking towards lower pollution at the expense of efficiency in the 1970s, today’s trucking paradigm is seeing a push for more efficiency. At what expense?
A new report from Ravi Shanker at Morgan Stanley urges investors to consider electric and self-driving commercial trucking as an opportunity. Shanker says that regulations and economics will drive the industry towards electrification and autonomous technologies. The analyst says that this could happen as early as 2020, which is when new federal fuel economy regulations on heavy-duty vehicles begin to really gather steam. Although efficiency gains will be had with electrification and self-driving, Shanker makes it clear that this will be secondary to the demand created by regulatory pressure.
As usual, we look to California for a glimpse of what could be coming. California’s Sustainable Freight Action Plan calls for 100,000+ zero-emissions trucks to be on the road by 2030 in that state. There is debate as to whether this plan is realistic, but federal standards are also playing a large role. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (part of the federal Department of Transportation) have proposed emissions and fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles. The first of these began with the 2014 model year.
For our purposes, the regulations affecting “combination tractors” (aka “tractor-trailer” or “18 wheeler”) models are pertinent. The 2018 standards are relatively loose and most in the industry believe they are achievable, but the EPA and NHTSA have proposed further standards to begin in 2021, with incremental increases thereafter through to 2027. The goals are largely aimed towards lower CO2 emissions with reductions of about four percent (depending on the vehicle type) being the goal. The reduction is not the issue with industry insiders, however, it’s the test cycle to be used, which some argue is less realistic and which disfavors other emissions that also have requirements to be met. This Phase 2 of the federal efficiency standards for heavy trucks is not yet finalized, but will very likely be the driving force behind national changes in trucks.
Equating these changes into standard numbers that the general public would understand is difficult. Heavy-duty trucks can range in fuel efficiency from 20 mpg or better down to 2-3 mpg. For most tractor-trailer combinations, MPG averages of 4-9 mpg are the norm, depending on load, tractor type, and area of operation. Most analysts calculate efficiency using fuel use in tons per mile with a relatively long distance (100-500 miles) being the average. Using this method, for example, in my time driving a tractor pulling a refrigerated trailer across all 48 states, my fuel economy average was about average for that sector of the industry at roughly 60 ton-miles per gallon. Today, these numbers are slightly higher, according to the latest U.S. Transportation Energy book. Using this method of calculation, a 2015 Toyota Prius is about a third as efficient at moving freight as was my truck.
This doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement, of course. There are more companies than Tesla working towards deleting the smoke stacks from big trucks.
In Europe, Volvo trucks is working hard towards a zero-emissions (at the tailpipe anyway) trucking solution with several approaches being tested. An overhead tram-like charging system has been deployed for a short stretch of highway in Sweden, aiming to improve plug-in trucks’ range in EV mode. Short-haul battery electrics and two different versions of autonomous (or semi-autonomous) systems are also being tested.
Here in the States, Volvo’s Mack Trucks is working on a handful of electrification options for heavy-duty drivetrains. So is Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star in the U.S.). Startups like Nikola also have eyes on this electric trucking future. Other startups have hoped to get into the mix as well, but the failure rate is high with companies like Smith Electric, Vision Industries, and Boulder Electric having designed and marketed innovative commercial truck options that ultimately never caught on.
Meanwhile, the largest maker of electric heavy vehicles is Chinese maker BYD, who branched out from making gadget batteries into building electric buses, trucks, and more. They are currently filling contracts internationally for buses and trucks in places as disparate at California, Malaysia, and Europe. BYD builds battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid drivetrains and machines for several commercial market sectors.
So we can guarantee that changes to the trucking industry are coming, but no one can say how fast or how much change that will be. Current federal regulations will drive the industry forward until 2018 and it’s likely that new standards will be in place to keep carrying change forward after that. California’s ambitious plans for adopting electric trucks will be largely regulation and incentive driven, but that has down sides as well. Many of the startups we’ve seen who’ve created electrified big rigs or delivery trucks ultimately failed when the incentives began to dry up.
For Tesla, this could mean that the financial case for the Tesla Semi will need to be more economics-based and less dependent on single market, incentives-based plans. This means that Elon and Co should be looking beyond California and it’s 100,000 vehicle plans into a broader market. We’ll discuss the potential economic case for a Tesla Semi in a future editorial.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s Boring Company opens Vegas Loop’s newest station
The Fontainebleau is the latest resort on the Las Vegas Strip to embrace the tunneling startup’s underground transportation system.
Elon Musk’s tunneling startup, The Boring Company, has welcomed its newest Vegas Loop station at the Fontainebleau Las Vegas.
The Fontainebleau is the latest resort on the Las Vegas Strip to embrace the tunneling startup’s underground transportation system.
Fontainebleau Loop station
The new Vegas Loop station is located on level V-1 of the Fontainebleau’s south valet area, as noted in a report from the Las Vegas Review-Journal. According to the resort, guests will be able to travel free of charge to the stations serving the Las Vegas Convention Center, as well as to Loop stations in Encore and Westgate.
The Fontainebleau station connects to the Riviera Station, which is located in the northwest parking lot of the convention center’s West Hall. From there, passengers will be able to access the greater Vegas Loop.
Vegas Loop expansion
In December, The Boring Company began offering Vegas Loop rides to and from Harry Reid International Airport. Those trips include a limited above-ground segment, following approval from the Nevada Transportation Authority to allow surface street travel tied to Loop operations.
Under the approval, airport rides are limited to no more than four miles of surface street travel, and each trip must include a tunnel segment. The Vegas Loop currently includes more than 10 miles of tunnels. From this number, about four miles of tunnels are operational.
The Boring Company President Steve Davis previously told the Review-Journal that the University Center Loop segment, which is currently under construction, is expected to open in the first quarter of 2026. That extension would allow Loop vehicles to travel beneath Paradise Road between the convention center and the airport, with a planned station located just north of Tropicana Avenue.
News
Tesla leases new 108k-sq ft R&D facility near Fremont Factory
The lease adds to Tesla’s presence near its primary California manufacturing hub as the company continues investing in autonomy and artificial intelligence.
Tesla has expanded its footprint near its Fremont Factory by leasing a 108,000-square-foot R&D facility in the East Bay.
The lease adds to Tesla’s presence near its primary California manufacturing hub as the company continues investing in autonomy and artificial intelligence.
A new Fremont lease
Tesla will occupy the entire building at 45401 Research Ave. in Fremont, as per real estate services firm Colliers. The transaction stands as the second-largest R&D lease of the fourth quarter, trailing only a roughly 115,000-square-foot transaction by Figure AI in San Jose.
As noted in a Silicon Valley Business Journal report, Tesla’s new Fremont lease was completed with landlord Lincoln Property Co., which owns the facility. Colliers stated that Tesla’s Fremont expansion reflects continued demand from established technology companies that are seeking space for engineering, testing, and specialized manufacturing.
Tesla has not disclosed which of its business units will be occupying the building, though Colliers has described the property as suitable for office and R&D functions. Tesla has not issued a comment about its new Fremont lease as of writing.
AI investments
Silicon Valley remains a key region for automakers as vehicles increasingly rely on software, artificial intelligence, and advanced electronics. Erin Keating, senior director of economics and industry insights at Cox Automotive, has stated that Tesla is among the most aggressive auto companies when it comes to software-driven vehicle development.
Other automakers have also expanded their presence in the area. Rivian operates an autonomy and core technology hub in Palo Alto, while GM maintains an AI center of excellence in Mountain View. Toyota is also relocating its software and autonomy unit to a newly upgraded property in Santa Clara.
Despite these expansions, Colliers has noted that Silicon Valley posted nearly 444,000 square feet of net occupancy losses in Q4 2025, pushing overall vacancy to 11.2%.
In Pennsylvania, we got between 10 and 12 inches of snow over the weekend as a nasty Winter storm ripped through a large portion of the country, bringing snow to some areas and nasty ice storms to others.
I have had a Model Y Performance for the week courtesy of Tesla, which got the car to me last Monday. Today was my last full day with it before I take it back to my local showroom, and with all the accumulation on it, I decided to run a cool little experiment: How long would it take for Tesla’s Defrost feature to melt 8 inches of snow?
Tesla’s Defrost feature is one of the best and most underrated that the car has in its arsenal. While every car out there has a defrost setting, Tesla’s can be activated through the Smartphone App and is one of the better-performing systems in my opinion.
It has come in handy a lot through the Fall and Winter, helping clear up my windshield more efficiently while also clearing up more of the front glass than other cars I’ve owned.
The test was simple: don’t touch any of the ice or snow with my ice scraper, and let the car do all the work, no matter how long it took. Of course, it would be quicker to just clear the ice off manually, but I really wanted to see how long it would take.
Tesla Model Y heat pump takes on Model S resistive heating in defrosting showdown
Observations
I started this test at around 10:30 a.m. It was still pretty cloudy and cold out, and I knew the latter portion of the test would get some help from the Sun as it was expected to come out around noon, maybe a little bit after.
I cranked it up and set my iPhone up on a tripod, and activated the Time Lapse feature in the Camera settings.
The rest of the test was sitting and waiting.
It didn’t take long to see some difference. In fact, by the 20-minute mark, there was some notable melting of snow and ice along the sides of the windshield near the A Pillar.
However, this test was not one that was “efficient” in any manner; it took about three hours and 40 minutes to get the snow to a point where I would feel comfortable driving out in public. In no way would I do this normally; I simply wanted to see how it would do with a massive accumulation of snow.
It did well, but in the future, I’ll stick to clearing it off manually and using the Defrost setting for clearing up some ice before the gym in the morning.
Check out the video of the test below:
❄️ How long will it take for the Tesla Model Y Performance to defrost and melt ONE FOOT of snow after a blizzard?
Let’s find out: pic.twitter.com/Zmfeveap1x
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 26, 2026
Elon Musk’s Boring Company opens Vegas Loop’s newest station
Tesla leases new 108k-sq ft R&D facility near Fremont Factory
