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Why Telsa Will Likely See 100k Model 3 Reservations Within the First 24 Hours

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Tesla Model 3 logo

Tesla Model 3 logo

 

With all the buzz surrounding the upcoming Model 3 unveil and how Tesla will likely book 100,000 reservations within the first 24 hours of reservation opening, we decided to do a little math of our own to see what that may mean given some basic assumptions. We know that there are 221 Tesla stores worldwide that will begin taking Model 3 reservation at 10 am local time. Of those stores, there’s a high probability – based on feedback from staff at Tesla stores regarding the volume of inquiries around the Model 3 March 31st in-store reservation process – that hundreds of people will already be lined up, many of which camped overnight to guarantee their early spot in line, before the store opens. It’s important to note that we are assuming 24 hours from a 10am Pacific time opening and not 10am from the Sydney Australia Tesla Store which is 18 hours ahead.

Assuming each of the 221 Tesla stores can process  a very conservative 30 reservations per hour, though some stores are preparing to handle 50 reservations or more per hour for the duration of the store’s opening hours, we can project a low of  53,000 Model 3 reservations will be placed before store closing on March 31st. These are from people that physically lined up at stores to place their reservations.
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There's also the likelihood that a significant percentage of Tesla employees - many of which have already placed their reservations - along with thousands of Model 3 enthusiasts that decided to forego the Tesla store frenzy, will reserve online the minute Tesla makes it available the evening of the 31st. Then there's the impulse buyers who have heard about Model 3 mania through social media, Engadget, Bloomberg, Fortune, and mainstream media outlets for weeks leading up to the event, and decide to plunk down the $1,000 Model 3 reservation deposit. After all, it's refundable by Tesla so why not?

With those assumption in mind, the reservation number can climb quickly and easily surpass 100,000 Model 3 reservations within the first 24 hours.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’

The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.

On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.

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The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.

Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.

Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.

Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.

Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it

With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.

Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.

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Tesla begins Holiday Update rollout with some surprise features

On Monday, just a few days after Tesla first announced the Holiday Update, people started reporting that it was being deployed to owners.

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Credit: Grok

Tesla has started the rollout of the 2025 Holiday Update, as several owners reported it had arrived in their cars via a software update.

Tesla’s Holiday Update is rolling out as Software Version 2025.44.25.1, and includes several new features. We did an extensive breakdown of what was included in another article, but we’ll list the new additions below:

  • Grok with Navigation Commands (Beta) – Grok will now add and edit destinations.
  • Tesla Photobooth – Take pictures inside your car using the cabin-facing camera
  • Dog Mode Live Activity – Check on your four-legged friend on your phone through periodic snapshots taken of the cabin
  • Dashcam Viewer Update – Includes new metrics, like steering wheel angle, speed, and more
  • Santa Mode – New graphics, trees, and a lock chime
  • Light Show Update – Addition of Jingle Rush light show
  • Custom Wraps and License Plates – Colorizer now allows you to customize your vehicle even further, with custom patterns, license plates, and tint
  • Navigation Improvements – Easier layout and setup
  • Supercharger Site Map – Starting at 18 pilot locations, a 3D view of the Supercharger you’re visiting will be available
  • Automatic Carpool Lane Routing – Navigation will utilize carpool lanes if enabled
  • Phone Left Behind Chime – Your car will now tell you if you left a phone inside
  • Charge Limit Per Location – Set a charge limit for each location
  • ISS Docking Simulator –  New game
  • Additional Improvements – Turn off wireless charging pad, Spotify improvements, Rainbow Rave Cave, Lock Sound TRON addition

On Monday, just a few days after Tesla first announced the Holiday Update, people started reporting that it was being deployed to owners.

It seems the release is a bit of an apology to a particular group, as it has only made its way to Hardware 3 vehicles, particularly the ones using the AMD Ryzen chip.

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Tesla has excluded FSD-purchased and subscribed vehicles that are utilizing Hardware 3, so it seems there is a strategy to this limited rollout.

Two Surprise Additions

Tesla has added two additional features with the Holiday Update, which include a new Storage Space for Dashcam feature that shows how much space you have used and remaining on your USB drive.

Additionally, Tesla gamified Supercharging with a new “Charging Passport” feature, which we reported on earlier today.

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Tesla announces major milestone at Gigafactory Shanghai

First deliveries started in December 2019, with the first units being given to employees. By the end of 2020, the plant was building cars at a run rate of around 150,000 vehicles annually.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has announced a major milestone at its Chinese manufacturing facility, Gigafactory Shanghai, confirming on Monday that it had built its four millionth vehicle.

Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai first started building cars back in October 2019 with Model 3 assembly, just ten months after the company broke ground on the plant’s 86-hectare piece of land.

First deliveries started in December 2019, with the first units being given to employees. By the end of 2020, the plant was building cars at a run rate of around 150,000 vehicles annually. Production continued to ramp up, and by September 2023, less than three years after it started building Tesla’s EVs, it had built its two millionth vehicle.

Fast forward to December 2025, and Tesla has confirmed that four million cars have rolled off of production lines at the plant, a major milestone in the six short years it has been active:

The capacity at Giga Shanghai is exceeding 950,000 vehicles per year, and this year, the company has delivered 675,000 cars through the first three quarters. It is also the only plant to manufacture the Model Y L, a longer wheel-based configuration of the all-electric crossover that is exclusive to the Chinese market.

Gigafactory Shanghai’s four million cars have not all stayed within the domestic market, either. For a considerable period, the factory was exporting a significant portion of its monthly production to Europe, helping Gigafactory Berlin supplement some Model Y volume and all of its Model 3 deliveries. This is due to the Berlin plant’s exclusive production plans for the Model 3.

The site is one of the most crucial in the company’s global plans, and Gigafactory Shanghai’s incredible pace, which has led to four million production units in just about six years. It’s fair to say that it won’t be long until we’re seeing Tesla celebrate the plant’s five millionth vehicle produced, which should happen sometime late next year or in early 2027, based on its current manufacturing pace.

The company also builds the Megapack on the property in an adjacent Megafactory.

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