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Why Telsa Will Likely See 100k Model 3 Reservations Within the First 24 Hours

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Tesla Model 3 logo

Tesla Model 3 logo

 

With all the buzz surrounding the upcoming Model 3 unveil and how Tesla will likely book 100,000 reservations within the first 24 hours of reservation opening, we decided to do a little math of our own to see what that may mean given some basic assumptions. We know that there are 221 Tesla stores worldwide that will begin taking Model 3 reservation at 10 am local time. Of those stores, there’s a high probability – based on feedback from staff at Tesla stores regarding the volume of inquiries around the Model 3 March 31st in-store reservation process – that hundreds of people will already be lined up, many of which camped overnight to guarantee their early spot in line, before the store opens. It’s important to note that we are assuming 24 hours from a 10am Pacific time opening and not 10am from the Sydney Australia Tesla Store which is 18 hours ahead.

Assuming each of the 221 Tesla stores can process  a very conservative 30 reservations per hour, though some stores are preparing to handle 50 reservations or more per hour for the duration of the store’s opening hours, we can project a low of  53,000 Model 3 reservations will be placed before store closing on March 31st. These are from people that physically lined up at stores to place their reservations.

There's also the likelihood that a significant percentage of Tesla employees - many of which have already placed their reservations - along with thousands of Model 3 enthusiasts that decided to forego the Tesla store frenzy, will reserve online the minute Tesla makes it available the evening of the 31st. Then there's the impulse buyers who have heard about Model 3 mania through social media, Engadget, Bloomberg, Fortune, and mainstream media outlets for weeks leading up to the event, and decide to plunk down the $1,000 Model 3 reservation deposit. After all, it's refundable by Tesla so why not?

With those assumption in mind, the reservation number can climb quickly and easily surpass 100,000 Model 3 reservations within the first 24 hours.

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Tesla launches in India with Model Y, showing pricing will be biggest challenge

Tesla finally got its Model Y launched in India, but it will surely come at a price for consumers.

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Credit: Narendra Modi | X

Tesla has officially launched in India following years of delays, as it brought its Model Y to the market for the first time on Tuesday.

However, the launch showed that pricing is going to be its biggest challenge. The all-electric Model Y is priced significantly higher than in other major markets in which Tesla operates.

On Tuesday, Tesla’s Model Y went up for sale for 59,89,000 rupees for the Rear-Wheel Drive configuration, while the Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive was priced at 67,89,000.

This equates to $69,686 for the RWD and $78,994 for the Long Range RWD, a substantial markup compared to what these cars sell for in the United States.

Deliveries are currently scheduled for the third quarter, and it will be interesting to see how many units they can sell in the market at this price point.

The price includes tariffs and additional fees that are applied by the Indian government, which has aimed to work with foreign automakers to come to terms on lower duties that increase vehicle cost.

Tesla Model Y seen testing under wraps in India ahead of launch

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There is a chance that these duties will be removed, which would create a more stable and affordable pricing model for Tesla in the future. President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi continue to iron out those details.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said to reporters outside the company’s new outlet in the region (via Reuters):

“In the future, we wish to see R&D and manufacturing done in India, and I am sure at an appropriate stage, Tesla will think about it.”

It appears to be eerily similar to the same “game of chicken” Tesla played with Indian government officials for the past few years. Tesla has always wanted to enter India, but was unable to do so due to these import duties.

India wanted Tesla to commit to building a Gigafactory in the country, but Tesla wanted to test demand first.

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It seems this could be that demand test, and the duties are going to have a significant impact on what demand will actually be.

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Tesla ups Robotaxi fare price to another comical figure with service area expansion

Tesla upped its fare price for a Robotaxi ride from $4.20 to, you guessed it, $6.90.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has upped its fare price for the Robotaxi platform in Austin for the first time since its launch on June 22. The increase came on the same day that Tesla expanded its Service Area for the Robotaxi ride-hailing service, offering rides to a broader portion of the city.

The price is up from $4.20, a figure that many Tesla fans will find amusing, considering CEO Elon Musk has used that number, as well as ’69,’ as a light-hearted attempt at comedy over the past several years.

Musk confirmed yesterday that Tesla would up the price per ride from that $4.20 point to $6.90. Are we really surprised that is what the company decided on, as the expansion of the Service Area also took effect on Monday?

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The Service Area expansion was also somewhat of a joke too, especially considering the shape of the new region where the driverless service can travel.

I wrote yesterday about how it might be funny, but in reality, it is more of a message to competitors that Tesla can expand in Austin wherever it wants at any time.

Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion wasn’t a joke, it was a warning to competitors

It was only a matter of time before the Robotaxi platform would subject riders to a higher, flat fee for a ride. This is primarily due to two reasons: the size of the access program is increasing, and, more importantly, the service area is expanding in size.

Tesla has already surpassed Waymo in Austin in terms of its service area, which is roughly five square miles larger. Waymo launched driverless rides to the public back in March, while Tesla’s just became available to a small group in June. Tesla has already expanded it, allowing new members to hail a ride from a driverless Model Y nearly every day.

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The Robotaxi app is also becoming more robust as Tesla is adding new features with updates. It has already been updated on two occasions, with the most recent improvements being rolled out yesterday.

Tesla updates Robotaxi app with several big changes, including wider service area

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Tesla Model Y and Model 3 dominate U.S. EV sales despite headwinds

Tesla’s two mainstream vehicles accounted for more than 40% of all EVs sold in the United States in Q2 2025.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 remained the top-selling electric vehicles in the U.S. during Q2 2025, even as the broader EV market dipped 6.3% year-over-year. 

The Model Y logged 86,120 units sold, followed by the Model 3 at 48,803. This means that Tesla’s two mainstream vehicles accounted for 43% of all EVs sold in the United States during the second quarter, as per data from Cox Automotive.

Tesla leads amid tax credit uncertainty and a tough first half

Tesla’s performance in Q2 is notable given a series of hurdles earlier in the year. The company temporarily paused Model Y deliveries in Q1 as it transitioned to the production of the new Model Y, and its retail presence was hit by protests and vandalism tied to political backlash against CEO Elon Musk. The fallout carried into Q2, yet Tesla’s two mass-market vehicles still outsold the next eight EVs combined. 

Q2 marked just the third-ever YoY decline in quarterly EV sales, totaling 310,839 units. Electric vehicle sales, however, were still up 4.9% from Q1 and reached a record 607,089 units in the first half of 2025. Analysts also expect a surge in Q3 as buyers rush to qualify for federal EV tax credits before they expire on October 1, Cox Automotive noted in a post.

Legacy rivals gain ground, but Tesla holds its commanding lead

General Motors more than doubled its EV volume in the first half of 2025, selling over 78,000 units and boosting its EV market share to 12.9%. Chevrolet became the second-best-selling EV brand, pushing GM past Ford and Hyundai. Tesla, however, still retained a commanding 44.7% electric vehicle market share despite a 12% drop in in Q2 revenue, following a decline of almost 9% in Q1.

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Incentives reached record highs in Q2, averaging 14.8% of transaction prices, roughly $8,500 per vehicle. As government support winds down, the used EV market is also gaining momentum, with over 100,000 used EVs sold in Q2.

Q2 2025 Kelley Blue Book EV Sales Report by Simon Alvarez on Scribd

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